This Sunday’s UFC Fight Night 113 in Scotland might be one of the lowest-rated cards of the year. Case in point: Santiago Ponzinibbio - a good-yet-completely-unknown fighter to most fans - is the main event attraction alongside Gunnar Nelson. The rest of the fights aren’t much help either, but at least there’s plenty of local Scottish talent for the home crowd to cheer for.
But the gambling doesn’t stop just because it’s a super low-key card. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down a few of the night’s notable clashes.
Main Event, Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson -200
Santiago Ponzinibbio +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -215, under +170
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Despite the lack of fanfare, this is a fantastic bit of matchmaking. Both men have reached their peak as fighters and are fighting at career-best levels. The winner of this matchup deserves a shot at a fringe contender.
Ponzinibbio is a dynamic striker who can be aggressive to a fault. He throws everything at full power, causing many of his opponents to get on their bicycles and panic. While this style makes him fun to watch, it also leaves him open for counters and takedowns.
Not unlike Lyoto Machida, Nelson employs a wide, karate-based stance that makes him difficult to hit. The Icelander is also a committed takedown artist with high-level grappling. Because his strengths happens to be Ponzinibbio’s weaknesses, expect Nelson to snatch the win.
UFC odds pick: Nelson to win at -200
Co-Main Event, Women’s Strawweight
JoJo Calderwood +190
Cynthia Calvillo -270
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -150, under +110
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Fighting in her hometown of Glasgow, JoJo Calderwood figures to get a hero’s welcome when she steps into the octagon. Giving her fans a victory will be tough, as she meets undefeated Cynthia Calvillo.
Calderwood’s staunch kickboxing gives her a marked advantage in the standup phase. On the mat, Calvillo is a typical Team Alpha Male fighter, right down to scrambles and back takes. Calvillo was able to ground a striker in her last fight against Pearl Gonzalez, but Calderwood is much more experienced.
This is a close fight, but Calderwood should be able to keep it standing and impose a much more polished striking technique. If you’re nervous about picking a winner, the over is always a solid choice when it comes to this weight class.
UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -150
Lightweights
Stevie Ray -120
Paul Felder -120
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -210, under +160
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Felder has a Muay Thai background, which is surprising considering how hittable and flat-footed he can be. Still, he’s a solid athlete with good cardio. Those tools, along with a solid wrestling base, has allowed him to stick around the UFC and compile a 5-3 record.
Scotland’s Ray has always been a good finisher, with six KOs and eight SUBs to his credit. In his last outing, he scored his biggest win yet - a majority decision over a well-regarded Joe Lauzon. In that matchup and his prior scrap against Ross Pearson, Ray showed patience that indicates he’s evolving into a winning fighter.
It’s Ray’s recent improvements that give him an edge over Felder, who is largely still the same fighter he was when he made his UFC debut a few years ago. Take the Scot to win one for his countrymen.
UFC odds pick: Ray to win at -120
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UFC Fight Night 113 takes place on Sunday, July 16, 2017 at the SSE Hydro Arena in Glasgow Scotland. The card airs live on FS1.
