It’s a slow month for the UFC, as we enter our third consecutive week with no fight card. The next scheduled card is UFC Fight Night 98 on November 5. But right now, there are over a dozen fight odds you can bet on in the our sportsbook - with new additions and updates on the daily. It’s a great time to peruse the books for live underdogs and place bets before fight week betting sways the lines.
Let’s take a look at a few notable options. Each underdog is listed in bold.
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UFC Fight Night 98, November 5
Tony Ferguson +120 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos -140
Beneil Dariush +131 vs. Rashid Magomedov -156
Ferguson has won eight straight, making him the hottest fighter in the UFC’s deepest division. His endless gas tank and wildly unpredictable style makes him a nightmare matchup for opponents. He’ll come into the bout with a three-inch height advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos, and giving him a significant edge in terms of fighting range. That will be important in this matchup, considering how much Dos Anjos has favored his striking recently.
Both Dariush and Magomedov are hardcore grinders - it’s just that Magomedov’s 19-1 record jumps off the page when it comes to setting the UFC odds at BookMaker. But if you actually look at the quality of their octagon opponents, it can be argued that Dariush has faced a higher caliber of competition. This should be close to a toss-up, making Dariush at +131 a good value.
UFC 205, November 12
Eddie Alvarez +125 vs. Conor McGregor -145
Tyron Woodley +150 vs. Stephen Thompson -175
Yoel Romero +140 vs. Chris Weidman -165
Before all the McGregor fans start riding me, let me just remind the masses that this list isn’t about who I think will win. It has more to do with value. Alvarez has made a habit of coming through as an underdog, making him one of the best betting options in recent years. His wrestling could give McGregor a lot of problems, like it did against Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez.
Thompson’s recent wins over Johny Hendricks and Rory MacDonald are taking away from the fact that Woodley is the most explosive, athletic talent in the welterweight division. All it takes is one of his trademark lightning right hands to end the fight. Plus, Thompson has improved his takedown defense, but it will be severely tested against a former NCAA D-1 wrestler.
The hulking Yoel Romero is one of the middleweight division’s best fighters, so any time he gets underdog odds we should be paying attention. Weidman has battled so many injuries to this point that we don’t know how much it will affect his abilities in the ring. Plus, his primary weapon, elite wrestling, will be cancelled out by Romero’s own Olympic wrestling background.
UFC Fight Night 99, November 19
Dong Hyun Kim +170 vs. Gunnar Nelson -200
DHK is 13-3 inside the octagon, and his only losses have come against Carlos Condit, Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley. Clearly, he is a guy that only falls to the cream of the crop. I’m not so sure Nelson falls into that category. If Rick Story can muscle around Nelson, I think Kim, a high-level Judoka who is bigger than Story, can do the same.
UFC 206, December 10
Anthony Johnson +105 vs. Daniel Cormier -135
“Rumble” Johnson is as scary as a peak Mike Tyson. If his money line keeps going up, I’d jump all over it. He’s only gotten better since losing to Cormier, and his power is the ultimate equalizer.
UFC 207, December 30
Amanda Nunes +165 vs. Ronda Rousey -190
Nunes holds such a big striking advantage over Rousey that it’d be foolish not to consider a bet on her. Nobody blows out Miesha Tate in the way that the Brazilian did. And even if it goes to the mat, Rousey’s wheelhouse, the champion is a black belt in BJJ.
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