Two of the heavyweight division’s most advanced strikers will meet this Saturday, and it’s a grudge match that’s been brewing for years. Alistair Overeem, a former K-1 kickboxing champion, and Junior dos Santos, long considered the best technical heavyweight boxer, are set finally set to collide after years of sniping at each other through the media. If you love watching giant men pummel each other, it just doesn’t get better than this.
UFC on FOX 17 odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem +270
Junior dos Santos -350
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +130, under -160
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates its lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker.eu have not moved since opening a few weeks ago, indicating that the action on both sides have been about equal. However, given how many people are aware of Overeem’s cracked chin, I’d expect dos Santos to become more expensive. The over/under at 1.5 rounds is at low as it gets, given the fight-ending power both men possess.
THE STAKES
There are title implications in this bout, albeit with a few clauses. If Fabricio Werdum can retain his title in a rematch with Cain Velasquez, then dos Santos could plausibly earn a title shot with a victory. However, it’s hard to see dos Santos facing Velasquez a fourth time when he was humiliated twice already by the former champ. If Overeem wins, he shoots right up to the top of the list as well, considering that dos Santos has long been considered the No. 2 fighter at heavyweight. The more realistic scenario is that the winner will find himself in a title eliminator in his next fight.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
After a shaky 1-2 start in the UFC, Overeem has gone 3-1 in his past four fights, knocking off Frank Mir, Stefan Struve and Roy Nelson. While none of those guys can really be considered top-10 heavyweights, the thin state of the heavyweight division keeps Overeem in the contender mix.
The Dutch kickboxer has always been one of the most dangerous strikers in the world. He’s got power in both fists, but it’s his legs and knees that opponents fear the most. His straight round kick to the body sent Brock Lesnar into retirement. His knees have left a long trail of unconscious victims and they should be classified as deadly weapons.
In the clinch, Overeem is an absolute monster. Behind a barrage of knees, the Dutchman can launch opponents with slick inside trips and throws. In top control, his ground-and-pound is as brutal as it gets. And though he’s more known for his standup, Overeem is extremely dangerous when hunting for submissions. His kimura is particularly fearsome, as he has the brute strength to torque an opponent’s shoulder with frightening ease.
Dos Santos brings elite, textbook boxing skills to the table. He is remarkably athletic and fluid for a man his size, and many opponents are not prepared for his speed. The Brazilian loves to control the center of the cage and operate at range. He flicks out a punishing jab, both to the face and the body, and will often follow it with a devastating overhand right. Sometimes he’ll swap out the overhand with hard uppercuts, depending on whether opponents duck into his combinations.
The former champion also has a deep vocabulary of strikes behind his fists. He possesses devastating low kicks and will occasionally throw the spinning hook kick that knocked out the famously durable Mark Hunt. However, he can be a little too reliant on his boxing, as it would serve him well to mix up his attack consistently.
THE SMART PLAYS
While Overeem is probably a bit more diverse on the feet - where both men prefer to fight - it’s almost impossible to put faith in his glass chin. We’ve seen Overeem dominate fights only to be tagged by a wounded fighter and go down for the count. What’s more, dos Santos is by far the best technical striker he’s faced in the UFC. This will not end well for Alistair.
What I do like is the positive payout on the over of 1.5 rounds. Overeem is fully aware of his inability to eat a flush shot and has fought much more cautiously as of late. Knowing that JDS needs space to operate, Overeem will either tie him up immediately or paw at him from distance. While i do think that this fight ends in TKO, I think it’ll go longer than expected.
PREDICTION: Junior dos Santos wins by TKO in the third
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 17 takes place Saturday, December 19, 2015 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The main card will be televised on FOX starting 8 pm. ET following the FOX Sports 1 prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET.
