After a year on the sidelines due to general displeasure with the UFC, Stockton bad boy Nate Diaz is back in action this Saturday - and he’s getting thrown right into the fire. The brash lightweight will meet Michael Johnson, who is quietly the No. 5 ranked fighter in the division. As with all Diaz fights, expect a ton of mean-mugging and trash talking before, during and after the bout.
UFC on FOX 17 odds at BookMaker.eu
Michael Johnson -400
Nate Diaz +300
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +105
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates its lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Johnson opens as a 4-to-1 favorite, and it’s fitting as he’s subtly evolved into a top-10 fighter over the past two years. Diaz is just 1-3 in the past four and will probably have to shake off some ring rust in this three rounder. His durability and lack of knockout power make the over the more expensive play on the 2.5 round over/under.
THE STAKES
Despite losing three out of his last four, Nate Diaz remains one of the most recognizable names in the lightweight division. Michael Johnson has beaten more talented fighters recently, but beating Diaz gives him his highest profile win to date. It also would set up a fight with deeper title implications.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Johnson could easily be on a five-fight winning streak - his most recent outing resulted in a very controversial decision loss to Beneil Dariush. Prior to that, he racked up victories over joe Lauzon, Glieson Tibau and Edson Barboza. The win over Barboza is particularly impressive, as the Brazilian is an established top-10 fighter at 155.
Equipped with extraordinary athleticism, Johnson has evolved exponentially as a fighter under Henri Hooft. Fighting in the Dutch kickboxing style, “The Menace” has channeled his blinding speed and explosive power into crippling combinations and crisp footwork. His left kick to the lead leg acts as a jab, and it can seriously wound opponents in just a round or two.
Johnson’s wrestling game is developing, but still a bit limited. His athleticism allows him to finish on a decent ratio of blast doubles, but it’s certainly not a strong suit. Where he has improved is his defensive wrestling, as he was not taken down in four fights prior to his meeting with Dariush.
Diaz’ game is predicated on pressure and punches in bunches. When he’s in rhythm, he just does not stop coming forward. His pitter-patter punches may not seem like much at first, but the significant damage they do can accumulate in a hurry. However, his cardio might just be his best weapon. This is a man who runs triathlons in his free time, and he never gets tired.
However, the Stockton native is taken down far too easily. His narrow frame and subpar athleticism lets opponents either lock him up or drive in for takedowns that he always seems to concede. And while Diaz’ submission offense off his back can be lethal, an experienced grappler can defend and punish him on the ground with relative ease.
The deciding factor in this fight will be Johnson’s speed and Diaz’ defense. There is a clear blueprint to beat Diaz, and it plays right into The Menace’s strengths. Johnson will batter the lead leg like many of his opponents have done in the past, then stick and move. Diaz will try to walk him down, but Johnson is quick enough to circle out and keep the fight in the center of the cage.
THE SMART PLAYS
Johnson is a huge favorite because this is a horrible style matchup for Diaz. He needs somebody who will stand right in front of him and brawl, but Johnson is far too smart to oblige him. Johnson is an easy pick to win.
Where you might stand to make more money is the over/under. Diaz is notoriously durable, and will Johnson will dish out an extraordinary amount of damage, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a stoppage. Take the over at -135.
PREDICTION: Johnson wins by unanimous decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 17 takes place Saturday, December 19, 2015 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The main card will be televised on FOX starting 8 pm. ET following the FOX Sports 1 prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET.
