This Saturday, lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos - 24-7, 4 KOs, 8 SUBs - will make his first title defense against a familiar opponent: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone - 28-6, 5 KOs, 15 SUBs. The two first met as contenders in August 2013, with dos Anjos emerging as the victor of a unanimous decision. Coincidentally, it happens to be the last bout that Cerrone lost, as “Cowboy” has reeled off seven consecutive wins.
UFC on FOX 17 odds at BookMaker.eu
Donald Cerrone +210
Rafael dos Anjos -270
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates its lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
There hasn’t been any line movement for a few weeks, implying that there’s been an equal amount of action on both fighters. If anything, I’d expect the line to get a bit more expensive on the champion, as he’s coming off an eye-opening win over Anthony Pettis. The over/under for two strikers is somewhat high at 4.5 rounds, with the over in chalk territory.
THE STAKES
It’s amazing to think that this is Cerrone’s first title fight, given that he’s 15-3 inside the octagon and has regularly faced some of the best in the division. Dos Anjos is perhaps the most unheralded champion in the promotion, but beating a popular fighter like Cowboy can quickly increase his name recognition.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
The champion is first and foremost a brutal striker. Blessed with exceptional athleticism, he has fully blossomed under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro. His full arsenal of talent was on display when he beat Anthony Pettis to claim the title. The Brazilian exercised superb footwork and took clean angles in delivering powerful combinations en route to a stunning upset victory.
While dos Anjos’ power may not be of the fight ending variety, they can change the course of the bout in an instant. His kicks are among the most powerful in the entire promotion, and they come at all levels in the blink of an eye. RDA is particularly talented at targeting the same spot over and over.
The champ is a good, if not great wrestler. His double legs are clean and explosive, and he drives through them with authority. While his defensive skills are solid, he does struggle against elite wrestlers in defending chained takedown attempts. On the mat, he’s everything you’d expect from a BJJ black belt.
Like dos Anjos, Cerrone is a great striker as well. A former pro kickboxer, Cowboy loves to operate at range, flicking a sharp jab with textbook front kicks. When he opens up, Cerrone strings together combinations beautifully and usually caps them off with a powerful round kick. When he’s in rhythm, Cerrone is one of the most creative strikers on the roster, and it’s impossible to tell where the next shot is coming from.
However, it usually takes a round or so for Cerrone to find his rhythm. More of an outfighter than a pressure fighter, Cowboy requires space to operate and patience to time his opponents. This is part of the reason he’s known to be a notoriously slow started. And he’ll usually take a few licks before he starts ticking.
Cerrone’s mat skills are criminally underrated. He’s got explosive takedowns, with a preference for trips and knee taps, and is an outstanding defensive wrestler. He’s not quite big or strong enough to bully most fighters, but he makes up for it with athleticism and guile. And when it goes to the ground, Cowboy is absolutely lethal in transition, as evidenced by his 15 submission wins.
THE SMART PLAYS
The first time these two fought, the odds were about dead even, with sportsbooks favoring both fighters. Now, RDA is close to a 3-to-1 favorite. I’m inclined to agree with oddsmakers on this. Both men are outstanding strikers, but dos Anjos is the more physically gifted fighter. What’s more, his pressure style presents a bad matchup for Cerrone, who needs room to get his striking going. Cowboy is tough enough to make it to the final bell, but dos Anjos will win enough rounds to keep his belt.
PREDICTION: Rafael dos Anjos wins by unanimous decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 17 takes place Saturday, December 19, 2015 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The main card will be televised on FOX starting 8 pm. ET following the FOX Sports 1 prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET.
