Ben Rothwell is tired of of being overlooked. The veteran heavyweight was supposed to face Stipe Miocic in October, and had he won would have had a strong case at a title bid. But Miocic pulled out with an injury and faced Andrei Arlovski instead. Now, Rothwell will face Josh Barnett this Saturday on FOX in a matchup between world-ranked big men, and Rothwell is determined to make his case as a legitimate contender.
Bet on UFC on FOX 18 odds at BookMaker.eu
Ben Rothwell +109
Josh Barnett -130
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +140, under -165
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their line on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s not surprising that Barnett is a favorite, as Rothwell is the type of fighter that doesn’t inspire much faith. His doughy frame fails the eyeball test, and he’s neither fast nor explosive. Barnett is pretty much an OG in the sport, dating back to the glory days of Pride, and it doesn’t appear as his skills have declined at all even at 38 years old.
THE STAKES
There’s a very good chance that the winner of this bout gets put in a title eliminator. Stipe Miocic has been verbally promised the next shot, but given that champion Fabricio Werdum isn’t defending his belt until next month, a lot could happen given the time frame. Barnett has only fought once in the past two years but still has a name that resonates with longtime fans of the sport. Beating a surging Rothwell puts him right back in the title hunt.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Neither man is going to win a Mr. Universe contest any time soon, but both are big burly dudes with serious power. The difference is that Rothwell uses his strength to bang, while Barnett uses it to grind.
Rothwell has always been a puncher, and his 20 KOs in 35 career victories demand respect. His standup isn’t pretty, but it can be brutally effective. Big Ben is comfortable in the pocket, where his trademark toughness lets him stand and trade if he needs to. He’s got an underrated clinch game as well, as he uses his 260-pound frame well in pressing opponents against the cage to dirty box.
He’s always been subpar when it comes to takedown defense, and this is probably due to his lack of agility. Rothwell makes up for it somewhat with improved BJJ, but he’s not a huge threat on the ground. A good wrestler can keep Rothwell pinned to the mat relatively easily.
Josh Barnett is one of the last real practitioners of catch wrestling, but like Sambo, it’s one of the most effective fighting bases in MMA. His standup has always been rudimentary, but it is adequate enough to get “Warmaster” into the clinch, where he does irreparable damage. His headfighting and dirty boxing are world-class, and he is superb in changing levels and going for takedowns.
But where Barnett is a true master is in the top ride. He will open up opponents with savage ground-and-pound and advance positions relentlessly. With 20 SUBs in 34 career victories, he can attack any limb. Take a look at his submission wins and you’ll see everything from arm triangles, armbars, toe holds, heel hooks and rear nakeds. This is a man who knows how to make dudes tap.
THE SMART PLAYS
Common sense dictates betting on Barnett to win. Rothwell’s takedown defense has always been suspect, and wrestling just happens to be Barnett’s forte. However, -200 on Barnett is a bit much, especially for a 38-year old who’s fought just once in the past two years.
I think the over on 2.5 rounds at +140 is the best value. While big men tend to have shorter fights, Barnett is too tough to get knocked out by Rothwell early, and Rothwell is too durable to get grinded out by Barnett in less than three rounds. Put your money on the over.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 18 takes place on January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be televised on FOX following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
