Ryan Bader has just one obstacle left on his journey towards an elusive title challenge: the destructive power of Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. The pair will meet this Saturday in the headlining bout of UFC on FOX 18. It’s a free fight on network television, and any fight with Rumble is one you don’t want to miss. Let’s break down the odds along with the fight.
UFC on FOX 18 odds at BookMaker.eu
Anthony Johnson -320
Ryan Bader +265
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -130, under +110
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their line on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker haven’t moved since this line first opened a few weeks ago. This indicates that there hasn’t been much action or the wagering has been pretty even on both sides. Interestingly enough, the over has shifted 10 points further into chalk territory, while the under has moved 20 points from +105 to +125.
THE STAKES
Johnson and Bader are ranked No. 2 and No. 4 by the UFC, respectively. With Gustaffson on the mend after a failed title bid, these are the two best fighters left after Jones and DC. There is no other sensible outcome besides the winner of this fight going on to face the winner of Jones-DC. Of course, any UFC fan knows how fickle a promised title shot can be.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Bader is first and foremost a wrestler, and he’s one of the best there is at 205. His wrestling has a meat-and-potatoes quality, based less on explosiveness and more on technique. His shots can be deceptively quick, and Bader’s chain wrestling is textbook perfect. He’s not the most explosive athlete, but he is ridiculously big and strong even for a light heavyweight.
It’s been nearly 10 years since Bader made his UFC debut, and his striking is still an enigma. He seemed to make real strides as a boxer against Ovince St. Preux and Phil Davis, but his most recent bout against Rashad Evans saw Bader revert to an awkward Muay Thai style approach. Bader has the power to put people away, but he has never been consistent with technique.
Rumble is without a doubt one of the most terrifying strikers of the UFC. You can’t make a top-5 knockout artists list without this guy on it. He’s got massive power in both his punches and his feet, and he knows it. Against Alexander Gustaffson, Johnson pretty much just chased the Swede down until he got close enough to punch him into oblivion.
Pitting Bader’s herky-jerky standup against Rumble’s nuclear arsenal almost seems unfair. For the Power MMA fighter, engaging in a striking battle against Johnson would be ignoring all common sense - and even basic survival instinct. “Darth’s” only hope is to get this fight to the ground. And that’s another big problem.
Johnson succumbed to DC’s wrestling, but he’s the cream of the crop in that department. Phil Davis, a former NCAA champion, could not take Johnson down. Bader is much closer to Davis’ level than he is Cormier’s. Rumble showed against Davis that he has the strength and athleticism to easily shrug off an elite wrestler’s takedowns. I expect that the be the case here.
THE INTELLIGENT PLAYS
Johnson is more than a 3-to-1 favorite for a good reason. Rumble’s concussive power does not bode well for Bader, who we’ve seen laid out cold by talented strikers like Lyoto Machida and Glover Teixeira. This might be the worst possible matchup for Bader in the division, and the odds at BookMaker are reflecting that fact.
I’m surprised that the under is +110, and it’s a great value for a coin flip proposition. Bader is no slouch, and he can absolutely extend the fight beyond 1.5 rounds. But Johnson also does his best work early, with four first-round KOs in his past eight fights.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 18 takes place on January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be televised on FOX following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
