19-year old Sage Northcutt, one of the UFC’s brightest young stars, is back in action this Saturday. Only this time, he’s not fighting on the prelims or a Fight Pass event. Northcutt is on the main card of a FOX card, and he’s moving up to welterweight to face UFC Bryan Barberena, who is stepped up to replace the injured Andrew Holbrook.
Bet on UFC on FOX 18 odds at BookMaker.eu
Sage Northcutt -400
Bryan Barberena +345
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
ODDS ANALYSIS
Northcutt is currently a 4-to-1 favorite over the unknown Barberena. This is another showcase fight for the kid, who the UFC is determined to groom into a superstar. That means he’ll be spoonfed with beatable opponents for the time being, and Holbrook is just another example. Northcutt has yet to see a third round in any of his fights, so it’s a little puzzling why the under on 1.5 rounds gets a positive payout.
THE STAKES
UFC Fight Night 80 in December was known as the “Paige and Sage card”, as the two young prospects were supposed to carry the show. Sage held up on his end, submitting Cody Pfister, but Paige VanZant was thrashed by Rose Namajunas. Northcutt is now the sole Great Blonde Hope, and a loss to a nobody like Barberena would be devastating. Barberena could earn serious job security with a shocking upset victory.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Northcutt is a eye-opening physical specimen. At 6’0”, he is already one of the taller fighters at lightweight. He’s not a lanky six-footer either, like Nate Diaz. This kid is absolutely ripped - it’s a wonder how he makes 155 in the first place and it seems inevitable that he’ll have to move up to welterweight at some point.
But he doesn’t just pass the eyeball test. He’s got once-in-a-generation athleticism. Speed, power, explosiveness, flexibility - Northcutt has got it all in spades. Add in the fact that he’s been competing in international martial arts tournaments at an age where most of us are struggling to hit a wiffle ball of a tee, and it’s hard not to get excited about this 19-year old.
He’s had just two fights in the octagon so far, notching a first round TKO over Francisco Trevino and a second round guillotine over Cody Pfister. Northcutt dispatched both with relative ease, and Holbrook can probably be considered in the same class of fighter when it comes to overall potential. He’s good enough to be in the UFC, and that’s pretty much it.
Barberena is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off a loss to Chad Laprise. He’s a fighter with plus knockout power, notching eight of his career 10 wins by knockout. The MMA Lab member isn’t just a sloppy brawler – he’s surprisingly well-rounded, which is to be expected training out of a top-notch team with guys like Benson Henderson.
Although he’s generally well-conditioned, Barberena is fighting on less on just a few weeks notice. It’s impossible to know whether he’s conditioned enough to go three hard rounds if needed. He needs to make this fight ugly, and it’s tough to do that without a gas tank.
THE SMART PLAYS
As long as this fight stays on the feet, it’s all Northcutt. Even if it goes to the ground, it’s hard not to see Northcutt physically overwhelming an opponent who hasn’t had a the benefit of a full training camp. For all of Super Sage’s youth, he’s already won pretty much every international Karate tournament there is, so his MMA striking is already world-class. This should be an easy win for Northcutt.
But if Northcutt to win is a too expensive for your tastes, then consider the under at +115. Nobody knows much about Barberena, but we can be sure that he’s never faced such a cheerful terror before. I expect Northcutt to blitz him early and finish it before 1.5 rounds.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 18 takes place on January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be televised on FOX following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
