In preparation of this Saturday’s UFC on FOX 18 card, we’ve previewed every fight and made some predictions. Now, it’s time for the fun part: the underdog report. This is for the bettors who like to live dangerously - or just believe that there is value to be exploited in the money lines. Check out if any of these ‘dogs strike your fancy.
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates on a daily basis. You can also view a full range of prop bets when you sign into your account.
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LIVE UNDERDOGS
Iuri Alcantara +140 vs. Jimmie Rivera -165
Carlos Diego Ferreira +235 vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier -300
I see why Jimmie Rivera is considered a blue chip prospect, but Iuri Alcantara is hardened vet with some real skills. This is the toughest matchup of his career, and I feel like it’s a toss-up. Alcantara is a talented finisher on the feet and the mat, so Rivera is going to have a ton of challenges wherever this fight goes.
In a similar situation, Aubin-Mercier is a prospect facing an experienced fighter in Carlos Diego Ferreira. Yes, Ferreira has lost two in a row, but those came against Dustin Poirier and Beneil Dariush - who are borderline top-10 lightweights in a deep division.
RISKY UNDERDOGS
Ben Rothwell +160 vs. Josh Barnett -200
Ryan Bader +310 vs. Anthony Johnson -425
Wilson Reis +170 vs. Dustin Ortiz -205
Barnett is not a good matchup for Rothwell, who has real problems against elite wrestlers. But Rothwell has made a habit of snatching victories while on the brink of defeat. What he makes up for in tangible qualities, like speed and agility, he makes up for in toughness and heart. I know it’s cliche, but this guy was out on his feet against Overeem and pulled out a ridiculous comeback.
Anthony Johnson is an even worse matchup for Ryan Bader. That doesn’t mean it’s all hopeless for Darth. In fact, Bader has never looked better over the course of an already impressive career. If he comes with a smart game plan and stays disciplined, there’s no reason to doubt that Bader can’t win two of three rounds against Johnson.
Dustin Ortiz is the more well-rounded fighter in his scrap with Wilson Reis, but this fight projects to be a barnburner. It only takes a few big hits for Reis to swing the judges in his favor.
UNDERDOGS DEAD IN THE WATER
Andrew Holbrook +300 vs. Sage Northcutt -400
Jake Ellenberger +146 vs. Tarec Saffiedine -186
Holbrook is being brought in as a sacrificial lamb to give superstar-in-training Sage Northcutt some screen time on FOX. Don’t be fooled by Holbrook’s 11-0 record, Northcutt can overwhelm him with his athleticism alone. It might be a while before we see Northcutt fight somebody worth mentioning.
I’m surprised that Ellenberger is not a bigger underdog. Although his recent losses - he’s 1-4 in his past five fights - came against some of the best in division, he hasn’t been particularly competitive in any of them. What’s more, Ellenberger’s chin appears to be irreparably cracked, and it’s robbed him of his trademark aggressiveness. A surgical striker like Saffiedine will capitalize on that tentativeness.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 18 takes place on January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be televised on FOX following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
