It’s been over a year since we lost saw Tarec Saffiedine in the octagon, but the No. 10-ranked welterweight will make his return on Saturday against Jake Ellenberger. Surprisingly, this fight takes place on the prelims, despite their name value among fight fans. The prelim feature bout headlines six total bouts on the FS1 portion of UFC on FOX 18. Let’s break it all down.
Please note, the odds listed below may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
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Jake Ellenberger +198
Tarec Saffiedine -239
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -210, under +175
I’m a little surprised that Ellenberger isn’t a bigger underdog, given the fact that he’s just 1-4 in his past five fights. Of course, losses to Rory MacDonald, Stephen Thompson and champion Robbie Lawler can be somewhat overlooked. Saffiedine is coming off a loss to MacDonald, but won his five previous fights. However, unlike Ellenberger, Saffiedine hasn’t been facing monster competition.
When Saffiedine is healthy, he’s a formidable technical kickboxer that loves to attack the lead leg. Ellenberger is a puncher with an increasingly vulnerable chin. While Saffiedine might have to shake off a bit of rust, he should be able to pick apart “The Juggernaut” for a clear unanimous decision victory.
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Olivier Aubin-Mercier -285
Carlos Diego Ferreira +235
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -215, under +180
The UFC’s search for a Canadian star continues, with 7-1 Quebec native Olivier Aubin-Mercier squaring off against Brazilian Carlos Diego Ferreira. Mercier has been impressive against low-level lightweights, positing a 3-1 UFC record since his debut in 2014. He’s a grappling specialist, with six SUBs in seven career wins, but training at Tri-Star should elevate his standup.
Ferreira will try to bounce back from back-to-back losses against Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier. A third loss against an unranked fighter light Aubin-Mercier could result in a pink slip from the UFC.
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Rafael Natal +142
Kevin Casey -167
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -156, under +131
Middleweight Kevin Casey is unbeaten in his last six fights, although one of his wins was overturned due to a positive PED test and another was stopped because of an eye poke. Casey has always looked the part of an MMA fighter, with a massive frame and explosive athleticism, but passing the eyeball test isn’t enough.
Natal comes into the bout on a three-fight winning streak, beating solid fighters in Chris Camozzi, Tom Watson and Uriah Hall. This should be a grappling-heavy affair, if that’s your thing.
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Dustin Ortiz -205
Wilson Reis +170
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -255, under +255
In a flyweight tilt, No. 9 ranked Dustin Ortiz and No. 12 ranked Wilson Reis battle for positioning in the 125-pound division. It’s a painfully thin weight class ruled by one of the world’s best, Demetrious Johnson. While the winner of this bout could move within a stone’s throw of the top five, they’ve still got a lot to prove before they earn a title challenge.
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George Sullivan +110
Alexander Yakovlev -140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -235, under +105
Russia’s Alexander Yakovlev is looking to reinvent himself as a welterweight-turned-lightweight. His win over former title challenger Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 63 is a good start. A win over Maynard doesn’t mean what it used to, but it still shows that he’s at least good enough to hang around the lightweight middle class for a while. Sullivan is 3-1 in the UFC, and will look to capture a few more fans with his KO-centric approach
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Alex Caceres -270
Masio Fullen +225
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
All Alex Caceres has going for him right now as a fighter is his awesome “Bruce Leeroy” nickname. Caceres has the persona to be a star, but his 10-8 record is evidence that he doesn’t have the requisite talent. Now a loser of three straight, he’s on a very short leash. Fullen is an alum of TUF: Latin America and is 1-1 in the octagon. He’ll look to bounce back from a loss to Makwan Amirkhani this past June.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 18 takes place on January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be televised on FOX following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
