Like it or not, Dan Henderson just keeps on fighting. And this Saturday, he’ll face off against light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in hopes of avenging a 2013 split decision loss to the Brazilian-Japanese karateka. While both men are among the division’s best known fighters, wins have been hard to come by lately for the pair.
Bet on UFC on FOX 19 odds at BookMaker.eu
Dan Henderson +270
Lyoto Machida -330
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +110, under -130
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily, so the lines you see here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Since the odds first opened, there’s been a 10-point swing for both men. Henderson has gone up to +270, while Machida dropped from -320 to -330. This indicates that most of the action has been on Machida, but not enough for a drastic shift. That could change on the night of the fight, as we’re used to late surges swinging lines.
THE STAKES
With each crushing loss, the calls for Henderson to retire get exponentially louder. Another bad loss for the 45-year old could lead to involuntary retirement by Dana White. He did the same for Chuck Liddell and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, basically refusing to book any more fights for them after brutal defeats.
Machida is still considered one of the better fighters at 185, but two straight losses have sent down the pecking order. Granted, those losses came against now-champion Luke Rockhold and top-4 fighter Yoel Rockhold, but neither of them were very close. A loss to Henderson would mark his third straight and spell disaster.
FIGHT ANALYSIS
Henderson used to be an elite Greco-Roman wrestler, with heavy top control and punishing ground and pound. His infamous right hand sledgehammer was just the icing on the cake. Now, that right hand is all he’s got.
It’s sad to say that Henderson offers no threat of a takedown, despite his status as an Olympian wrestler. He simply does have the strength and explosivity to bring down younger, fresher fighters. He was never a very athletic guy to begin with, but he’s cringingly slow these days.
Still, his patented H-Bomb right retains the ability to render foes unconscious, and Henderson dutifully soldiers on with his lone remaining weapon. He’ll stalk opponents with his right hand cocked, hoping for the right moment to unleash it. Hendo largely forgoes combinations and rarely initiates the body locks that were his bread and butter for so many years.
Machida, as we all know, is a points-based outfighter that picks and chooses his moments to blitz opponents. He’s been more aggressive with these outbursts in recent years, and this has had its pros and cons. “The Dragon” racks up far more points than he used to, and he is still one of the most accurate strikers in the game.
Obviously, more engagement leaves him open to a greater number of firefights, and his chin is showing cracks. That could just be his advancing age, as he’ll be 38 in a month. What’s more, he’s taken frightening beatings from Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero in his past two outings - and all the wars he’s been in seems to be catching up.
THE SMART PLAYS
This is the easiest pick on the main card. Henderson is shot, and he is not fast enough to corner the elusive Machida. I’d look into the over/under on this one, even though it’s risky at 1.5 rounds. Consider how Hendo’s last three fights have ended in round one, and how he’ll be running straight into Machida’s counters, and the under at -130 looks much more enticing than Machida to win at -330.
UFC odds: LYOTO MACHIDA TKO DAN HENDERSON, ROUND 1
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 19 takes place on April 16, 2016 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The card will be televised on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims at 6 p.m.
