This Saturday’s UFC on FOX 21 main card delivers in terms of title implications, starpower and just plain good fights. We’ve got a clash of welterweight contenders in the title mix, a former champion in a new weight class, and one of the most popular women’s fighters all competing on free network television. Let’s get into how you should be betting the main card.
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MAIN EVENT
Welterweights
Carlos Condit -120
Demian Maia +100
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -130, under +110
Prediction: Maia UD Condit
Maia has suffocated five straight opponents, including three top-10 guys, with an elite combination of wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He’s the new John Fitch, but with world-class BJJ skills to complement the grinding style. That might be the perfect approach to fighting the ultra-aggressive Condit, who needs space to execute his high-volume offense.
A few weeks ago, Maia was the underdog in this bout, but gamblers have obviously been putting their faith in the Brazilian, as the line has shifted to a pick’em bout. If you were able to place your bet when he was an underdog, good for you. But honestly, this fight is such a close matchup I’d probably just bet on whoever gets you a plus payout on fight night.
CO-MAIN EVENT
Anthony Pettis -167
Charles Oliveira +142
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -180, under +155
Prediction: Oliveira UD Pettis
A former lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis drops to 145 in hopes of bouncing back from a three-fight losing streak. But it’s how he’s losing that makes you question whether he can ever be as good as we thought he’d be. He was grinded out by Eddie Alvarez, who showed that a good, committed wrestle cans stifle his offense. He was outstruck by Edson Barboza, which might have been unthinkable a few years ago considering how dynamic “Showtime’s” kickboxing is. And he was beaten to a pulp by Rafael dos Anjos.
Oliveira will most likely follow Alvarez’s gameplan, to make best use of his superb grappling skills. It helps that he’s nearly as athletic as Pettis, and one of the bigger featherweights in the division. Expect “Do Bronx” to push the former champion into the cage and try and drag this fight to the ground. From there, Pettis is going to be playing defense. A lot.
Women’s Strawweights
Paige VanZant -195
Bec Rawlings +165
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +220
Prediction: Rawlings UD VanZant
VanZant is still an extremely raw prospect, and it’s unlikely that is going to change after she basically ditched the gym to compete on “Dancing with the Stars.” There are serious holes in her game, particularly in the striking department, that she needs to address before she can realistically compete with the division’s contenders.
As a contestant on TUF 20, Rawlings was also considered an unrefined fighter. But she’s made marked improvements since her UFC debut. She has evolved her game to the point where she doesn’t have to rely on wild exchanges. VanZant is still in a phase where she simply tries to overwhelm opponents with pace. That’s not going to work anymore against “Rowdy.”
Lightweights
Jim Miller +120
Joe Lauzon -140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Prediction: Lauzon TKO Miller, Round 3
Oh man. If this rematch comes even close to the “Fight of the Year” they put on in 2012, it’s going to be off the chain. Do people still say that? But while both Miller and J-Lau are still just 32, they’ve got a ton of miles on the odometer and are no longer the top-15 guys they used to be.
The question here is who has aged more gracefully. To me, it’s Lauzon. His height gives him a natural defense on the feet, while Miller is a stockier guy who has to get by on grit. This is going to be a close contest either way, so it might be better to stay away from this one entirely.
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HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on FOX 21 takes place on UFC on FOX 21 on Saturday, August 27, 2016 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. The card will air on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
