This Saturday, the UFC heads to Sacramento for a strong FOX card featuring some of the promotion’s most popular and intriguing fighters. In the main event, strawweight star Paige VanZant meets the gritty “Karatie Hottie”, Michelle Waterson. Squaring off in the co-main event are blue chip prospects Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall, and Urijah Faber will lace up the gloves for a final fight in front of a hometown crowd.
It’s a night of action that’s drumming up more interest than plenty of lesser pay-per-view cards. Let’s check out your betting options.
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Main Event
Women’s Strawweight
Paige VanZant -115
Michelle Waterson -105
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -150, under +130
Fight Preview
VanZant was able to rebound from a brutal loss to Rose Namajunas to score a sensational head kick knockout of Bec Rawlings at UFC on Fox 21 this past August. At 22, she is still mostly raw talent, relying more on aggression and pace over technique. Despite her defensive shortcomings, her toughness and cardio makes her a tough out against anyone in the division.
Waterson was successful in her UFC debut this past July, besting Angela Magana with a rear naked choke in Round 3. The submission win gave her 11 stoppages in 13 career victories, an impressive ratio and a testament to her well-rounded skillset. However, she’s a natural atomweight, and fighting 10 pounds above her natural weight class is a huge disadvantage - especially against grinders like VanZant.
Betting Guide
This is an interesting matchup. Waterson is unquestionably the more skilled fighter on the feet, but it’s easy to see the larger PVZ pressing her into the cage and turning this into clinch war. If Waterson had knockout power, I’d give her the advantage, but VanZant will likely eat leather and close the distance quickly.
UFC odds pick: VanZant to win
Welterweight
Sage Northcutt -110
Mickey Gall -110
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +100, under -120
Fight Preview
In one of the most interesting prospect bouts in recent memory, 24-year old CM Punk-Killer Mickey Gall squares up with 20-year old UFC golden boy Sage Northcutt. On paper, it’s a striker vs. grappler matchup, with Sage pitting his world championship Karate skills against Gall’s dangerous BJJ brown belt.
Though both men are still relative newbies to pro MMA, their futures are unquestionably bright. But right now, we still don’t know how fast either one will evolve, giving this fight an exciting amount of uncertainty. It’s also rare for fighters to be so well-known at this stage in their careers.
Betting Guide
While Gall has been impressive in winning all three of his pro fights, you could argue that all three opponents were not close to UFC caliber talent. Northcutt will be making his fifth octagon appearance, and though he’s only beaten lower-tier guys, his level of competition has still been higher than Gall’s.
UFC odds pick: Northcutt to win
Bantamweight
Urijah Faber +345
Brad Pickett -425
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -150, under +130
Fight Preview
Faber is a future Hall of Famer making his last stand in his home town of Sacramento. While he’s still a top-10 bantamweight, “The California Kid” is just 1-3 in his past fought. All those losses have come against elite contenders, but Faber is smart enough to know that he doesn’t have what it takes to win a title in the evolving MMA landscape.
The UFC is giving Faber the opportunity to go out on a high note, as Pickett is a game fighter known for producing exciting fights. But like Faber, wins have been hard to come by for the Brit. Just 2-5 in his past seven, Pickett’s decline has been much steeper than Faber’s - and at 38, his time as a fighter is coming to close.
Betting Guide
This is a parting gift from the UFC for Urijah’s service. Pickett is a beatable opponent, and while he is dangerous on the feet he is susceptible to strong wrestlers like Urijah. Expect a fun, back-and-forth fight, one which Faber will spend copious amount of time in top control.
UFC odds pick: Faber to win
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UFC on Fox 22 takes place on Saturday, December 17, 2016 at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
