Former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (25-13, 17 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet rising contender Francis Ngannou (9-1, 5 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC on FOX 23 on Saturday, January 28, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The main card airs on Fox starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
It’s time to see if Francis Ngannou is ready to join the elite tier of heavyweights. The imposing Frenchman has compiled a 4-0 record with four stoppages against middle-of-the-pack competition and looks poised to take the next step. It falls on a former champion and No. 7 ranked Andrei Arlovski to try and derail the hype train.
Let’s take a look at your betting options and break down the matchup.
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Andrei Arlovski +335
Francis Ngannou -445
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +155, under -180
The Case for Arlovski
Mired in a three-fight losing streak, Arlovski’s back is against the wall. Whether that hurts him or helps him remains to be seen. But since he made the move to Jackson-Wink, “The Pitbull” has adopted a style that protects his glass chin as much as possible. He even enjoyed a brief and stunning career resurgence, winning four in a row and creeping into title contention.
Though he’s fallen back to earth, Arlovski remains a solid technical boxer with a sharp 1-2. The Belarussian is still fairly agile for the weight class, and his footwork lets him cut angles and avoid counter punches. He’s pretty much abandoned trying to take his opponents down, but that’s probably for the better as Arlovski is far more effective standing up.
When it comes to experience, Arlvoski has nearly four times as many fights as Ngannou. He’ll need every bit of his veteran knowledge to outsmart such a powerful physical opponent. It’s a good thing he has expert game planners in Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn.
The Case for Ngannou
Arlovski has historically struggled against powerful, explosive fighters. Those just happen to be the two of Ngannou’s distinguishing traits. The MMA Factory fighter opened his UFC career with three straight TKO wins, and each of those demonstrated his concussive power.
While it’s easy to write him off as a one-dimensional knockout artist, Ngannou also has four submissions to his credit. While not a complex grappler, the 30-year old has shown a knack for finding chokes and locks quickly after rocking his opponents. His wrestling is a complete unknown - he has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC.
Arlovski might be the better known fighter, but he is on a completely different career arc as quickly rising Ngannou. On paper, this is the Frenchman’s fight to lose.
Prediction and Pick
Arlovski might as well have a giant neon target on his chin at this point in his career. And it only takes one touch from a guy like Ngannou to put out the lights. Though Arlovski has knockout power of his own, Ngannou hasn’t ever been knocked out. This is a no-brainer call.
UFC odds pick: Ngannou TKO Arlovski, R2
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UFC on FOX 23 takes place on Saturday, January 28, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The card airs on Fox starting 8 p.m. ET.
