If you compare this Saturday’s free UFC on FOX 23 with next month’s UFC 208 pay-per-view offering, it could be easily argued that the former is a better deal. With stars, stud prospects and a No. 1 contender in the main event, the UFC is closing out the first month of 2017 on a high note - this card is stacked with significance and exciting matchups.
Let’s take a look at a few of the night’s best fights and make some practical picks.
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Main Event
Women’s Bantamweight
Valentina Shevchenko -117 vs. Julianna Pena -103
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -160, under +135
No. 1 vs. No. 2
First off, the winner of this fight will likely get a title shot against Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko is the No. 1 contender in the division, while Pena just behind her at No. 2. With Nunes looking unstoppable in her past two bouts, the winner’s performance will be highly scrutinized to surmise her chances against the champ.
But beyond the stakes, this is just a really compelling style matchup between an elite Muay Thai technician and a powerful grappler. Shevchenko just outstruck a world champion boxer in Holly Holm, and Pena most recently overwhelmed Cat Zingano - who was known for her physical strength.
Though Shevchenko is skilled and durable, I always tend to favor strong wrestlers over skilled strikers. Pena is fast enough to close the distance on an outfighter, and strong enough to drag this fight to the ground. If she can hold down Cat Zingano, she should be able to control a natural flyweight like Shevchenko.
UFC odds pick: Pena UD Shevchenko
Co-Main Event
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone -156 vs. Jorge Masvidal +131
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -215, under +180
Two Smooth Operators
Cerrone has been beasting since moving up to welterweight. A former pro kickboxer, “Cowboy” has either carved up all of his opponents with his speed and precision, or knocked them out with explosive striking - in some cases he did both.
But none of the 170 pounders he faced as fluid and smooth as Masvidal in the standup phase. From head movement to footwork to multi-punch combinations, “Gamebred” has a natural flow to his striking that makes it look easy.
This is an awesome matchup between two elite strikers, but Cerrone is much more well-rounded. An underrated wrestler, Cowboy’s takedowns and grappling can give Masvidal problems.
UFC odds pick: Cerrone UD Masvidal
Heavyweight
Francis Ngannou -376 vs. Andrei Arlovski +306
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +160, under -185
RIP, Andrei Arlovski
You have to feel for Andrei Arlovski. The heavyweight division is no place for a guy with a glass chin. Though the former champion is far more experienced than Francis Ngannou, he’s playing gatekeeper for a heavyweight that looks poised for a breakout year.
Ngannou embodies every tendency that gives Arlovski fits. He’s big. He’s fast. And he’s got nuclear capabilities in his fists. True to his nickname, “The Predator” is going to stalk the Belarussian and murderpunch him into unconsciousness.
UFC odds pick: Ngannou KO Arlvoski, R2
Featherweight
Alex Caceres +135 vs. Jason Knight -155
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -235, under +195
Striker vs. Grappler
Jason Knight is a submission specialist who loves to work out of the guard - an especially risky strategy when judges tend to favor the fighter on top. And in the UFC, everyone has to be well-versed in submission defense. But it’s worked for Knight thus far as he’s 2-1 inside the octagon.
Alex Caceres will want to keep the fight standing as he is extremely creative on the feet. In the past, he could easily be controlled by strong grapplers, but he has dramatically improved his offensive and defensive wrestling. For that reason alone, I like Caceres to impose his game.
UFC odds pick: Caceres UD Knight
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UFC on FOX 23 takes place on Saturday, January 28, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The card airs on Fox starting 8 p.m. ET.
