Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone had an eye-opening 2016, smashing his way to a 4-0 record in a new weight class and emerging as a contender at welterweight. He’s earned the right to face a fellow top-5 fighter, but instead he’s meeting No. 12 Jorge Masvidal. It’s a dangerous matchup for Cowboy, but he’s never shied away from a good scrap.
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Donald Cerrone -156
Jorge Masvidal +131
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -215, under +180
The Case For Masvidal
Coming up in Kimbo Slice’s backyard fighting ring and rising through the ranks of Bellator, Strikeforce and the UFC, Masvidal is one of the most experienced fighters in the division. He is smooth striker who operates from the outside, picking apart opponents with long range combinations.
Though he’s been more of a counterstriker throughout his career, the ATT fighter has picked up his output in recent bouts after suffering a few contentious split-decision losses. In a few of those cases, it was clear that he outmatched his opponents yet frustrated everyone watching - including the judges - by fighting on cruise control.
But in his last two bouts, against Ross Pearson and Jake Ellenberger, Masvidal has made an effort to be more aggressive. This culminated in a knockout win over Ellenberger. Cerrone is a notoriously slow starter, paving the way for Masvidal to score early.
The Case for Cerrone
A former pro kickboxker, Cowboy is known for his fan-friendly striking. In fact, he’s racked up three straight KO/TKO victories in the past six months. The Jackson-Wink fighter has taken to a new division like a fish to water, looking faster and more energized.
This makes it easy to overlook the other excellent phases of his game. He actually possesses twice as many submission finishes as KOs - many of which came as the immediate result of rocking an opponent. An underrated wrestler, Cerrone was able to take down the freakishly strong Rick Story - surprising considering that Cowboy fought at lightweight his whole career.
He’ll need all these tools to beat Masvidal, who can hold his own with anybody when it comes to a straight kickboxing match. Cerrone’s game is much more well-rounded, and it’s on him to show it.
Prediction and Pick
This should be a fine exhibition of standup skills, but the difference here will be Cerrone’s wrestling. Masvidal has excellent takedown defense, but his offense can be limited by the threat of being put on the mat. On the flip side, Cerrone won’t have to worry about Masvidal trying to take him down and should be able to operate on the feet with full confidence.
It’s going to be a close bout, but in the end Cerrone’s dynamic skillset gives him more paths to victory. He will NOT be knocking out or submitting the durable, experienced Masvidal, so bank on this going to decision.
But do you wanna gamble? Masvidal isn’t a great matchup for Cerrone, and the opportunity for upset here is ripe. If “Gamebred” climbs to around +150, his value is too good to pass up.
UFC odds pick: Cerrone UD Masvidal
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UFC on FOX 23 takes place on Saturday, January 28, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The card airs on Fox starting 8 p.m. ET.
