No. 1, meet No. 2. Valentina Shevchenko, the top-ranked women’s bantamweight contender, will square off this Saturday against Julianna Pena, who falls just one spot below her in the UFC rankings. Though Dana White has yet to officially declare this a title eliminator, it’s almost a certainty that the winner will be next for champion Amanda Nunes.
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Valentina Shevchenko -117
Julianna Pena -103
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -160, under +135
The Case for Shevchenko
A former world champion in Muay Thai, Shevchenko is one of the most technical strikers in the division. She is a counterstriker by nature, and if opponents crowd her “Bullet” is excellent in grabbing the Thai plum and launching knees into the midsection. While she doesn’t have the one-punch killshot power of Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko is excellent at scoring significant damage for convincing victories.
Her last two fights are clear indicators of her elite status. Though she lost to Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko’s durability gave the now-champion her toughest test to date. Had the fight been a five-round main event, it’s arguable that a more aggressive approach could have taken a win over the fading Nunes. Against Holly Holm - a world champion boxer - Shevchenko simply outclassed her on the feet.
Against Pena, Shevchenko has to make sure her sprawl is on point and that she’s cutting angles against an aggressive wrestler. She definitely has the skills to do this.
The Case for Pena
Aside from Amanda Nunes, no bantamweight has risen more quickly in the past year than Pena. Since winning The Ultimate Fighter, “The Venezuelan Vixen” is 4-0, with her most recent win coming against former title challenger Cat Zingano.
The win over Zingano comes after an injury layoff that lasted nearly a year, but Pena’s performance immediately put her back in title contention. Against a fighter known for her natural strength, Pena was able to land strong takedowns and control position while on top. It was an eye-opening display of brute force.
Looking at Shevchenko’s resume, it’s easy to see that she’s never faced a wrestler as strong as Pena. If Julianna can force a phone booth fight, her chances of winning increase dramatically.
Prediction and Pick
It’s easy to see how this fight will play out, yet extremely difficult to pick the winner. If the fight stays standing, Shevchenko will pick her apart. If Pena gets it to the ground, it’s her match to lose. The key here is that Pena is the bigger fighter, and she doesn’t appear to have issues with her cardio.
She should find success dragging Shevchenko to the mat and controlling her for the majority of the rounds. Shevchenko has always had issues with volume, and it’s tough for her to make up for lost rounds later in the fight because of her natural counterstriking tendencies.
UFC odds pick: Pena to win at -103
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UFC on FOX 23 takes place on Saturday, January 28, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The card airs on Fox starting 8 p.m. ET.
