This Saturday, 26-year old Robert Whittaker will attempt to join the crowded contender picture at 185 when he meets No. 3-ranked human boa constrictor Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza on a stacked UFC on FOX 24 card. It’s a huge test for the young prospect, as Souza brings one of the best jiu-jitsu games in MMA history to the table.
Let’s take a look into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options. The goal here is to get to a pick that returns good value without taking too much risk.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Ronaldo Souza -230
Robert Whittaker +190
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
The Case for Whittaker
“The Reaper” is young, strong, fast and skilled. A very good athlete, Whittaker has great physical tools to work with. There aren’t many middleweights that are as quick, and he’s evolved great striking technique to maximize already impressive punching power.
His best chance of winning is on the feet. Once a textbook boxer, he’s recently become a much more diverse MMA striker, incorporating unorthodox combinations and more of his limbs. Moving up from welterweight gives him the energy to throw at a much higher volume and apply a more pressure-based style.
This fight comes down to whether he can keep the fight standing against Jacare. He’s never really been tested by a great takedown artist, and while Souza isn’t a traditional wrestler he is very good at getting fights to the ground. If Whittaker can maintain his distance, he’s got a good shot of scoring the upset.
The Case for Souza
Jacare has one of those body types that makes you question whether he’s the beneficiary of PEDs. That’s not an accusation by any means, but a testament to how impressive a physical specimen he is. He’s not only shredded, but extremely muscular - and those aren’t just beach muscles.
Even at 37, Souza has natural strength that elevates every aspect of his game. His boxing has improved greatly in recent years, but the Brazilian has always had knockdown power. Still, he’s never been a very active striker, choosing to pick his shots instead of throwing combinations.
What makes Souza special is his jiu-jitsu. One of the most decorated practitioners of the art in MMA today, you get the sense that a submission is inevitable when he ends up on top. He is just that good and strong.
How You Should Bet
If we could be sure that Whittaker keeps this fight standing, an upset pick might be in order. But the Aussie is not a native wrestler - he comes from a boxing background. His takedown defense has been questionable at times, and that is a death warrant against Jacare. It’s going to be expensive, but Jacare to win is a safe bet.
UFC odds pick: Souza to win at -230
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UFC on FOX 24 takes place on Saturday, April 15, 2017 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
