Tim Elliott is more than a 2-1 favorite to defeat Louis Smolka at UFC on FOX 24 on Saturday night in Kansas City. It is a little bit surprising that Elliott is such a big favorite, as his overall record is just 13-7-1, while Smolka is 11-3. Elliott looked good in a loss to Demetrious Johnson in his last fight, while Smolka has lost his past two bouts. This fight is one of four on the FOX preliminary card that leads up to the four-fight main card that features Johnson taking on Wilson Reis. Let’s look at Elliott vs. Smolka and UFC predictions.
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Tim Elliott (13-7-1)
Elliott is a difficult fighter to figure out. He didn’t do much in his first stint in the UFC, as he lost four of six bouts but after doing well in Titan FC, he won Season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter and got a title shot against Demetrious Johnson. Elliott did well in the fight against Johnson, as he won the first round before the champ came back to the win the final two rounds.
Elliott said he would like to get another title shot against Johnson but that winning the belt is not his ultimate goal. “Ideally, I would win this fight and get another win and then get another title fight,” Elliott said recently to the Kansas City Star. “It would be nice to get the rematch with Demetrious, but that’s really not the fight I want. He’s not an exciting fight for me. Getting the belt is cool, but I want to fight really exciting guys — guys like Cody ‘No Love’ [Garbrandt] and guys who are going to come out and try to knock you out and fight with some heart and emotion. Those are the fights I want.”
Elliott said he expects this fight to be full of action, for as long as it lasts. “Just like always, my fights are action-packed,” said Elliott. “I’m looking to make this one quick. I’ve changed my style quite a bit in the last few fights, and I’ve made some adjustments in this camp. You’re going to see a different Tim Elliott.”
Louis Smolka (11-3)
Smolka won his first seven fights and then lost to Chris Cariaso. Smolka bounced back from that loss to win his next four fights to move into the top 10 flyweight rankings. His good run ended with a loss to Brandon Moreno and he then was beaten by Ray Borg.
Smolka said he is turning to his one-year old daughter Lucy for inspiration. “She really keeps me focused.” Smolka said. “I try not to think about it too much but it does have its moments where it does drive you. I try to kind of put it on the back burner a little bit, just because the fact that I don’t want to freak out. Like I don’t want to start thinking about her and start crying or something on my way to the cage, I don’t want that to happen.”
Smolka said on radio recently that he is unsure of what to expect in this fight against Elliott. “It is kind of scary because it is really unpredictable,” Smolka said, “But at the same time, it kind of makes it fun.”
UFC Picks
I am really surprised at the odds on this fight, as I think it should be close to a pick. Smolka is a good striker with power and he is quick. Elliott would seem to be a good matchup for him, as Elliott is not afraid to trade shots. I think Smolka has a real chance to win this one so I will take him at +220. I also don’t think this fight lasts long, so I will take the rounds under.
Main Card (FOX)
Demetrious Johnson -771 vs. Wilson Reis
Rose Namajunas -147 vs. Michelle Waterson
Ronaldo Souza -230 vs. Robert Whittaker
Jeremy Stephens -210 vs. Renato Moicano
Preliminary Card (FOX)
Alexander Volkov -145 vs. Roy Nelson
Tom Duquesnoy -450 vs. Patrick Williams
Rashid Magomedov -350 vs. Bobby Green
Tim Elliott -260 vs. Louis Smolka
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Devin Clark -130 vs. Jake Collier
Andrew Sanchez -320 vs. Anthony Smith
Aljamain Sterling -250 vs. Augusto Mendes
Zak Cummings -400 vs. Nathan Coy
Ashlee Evans-Smith -180 vs. Ketlen Vieira
UFC on FOX 24takes place on Saturday, April 15 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri. The event features Demetrious Johnson defending his flyweight title against Wilson Reis.
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