There’s a lot to like about this Saturday’s UFC on FOX 25, starting with a main event featuring former champion Chris Weidman fighting off a young stud in Kelvin Gastelum.
Like action? Then don’t miss an expected barnburner between top-12 featherweights Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins, or the light heavyweight clash between Patrick Cummins and Gian Villante. Both matchups promise violence between dudes that love to bang.
For my money, the matchup between once-beaten bantamweights Jimmie Rivera and Thomas Almeida is the Fight of the Night, as both men bring fan-friendly pressure and pace. The winner here enters the title mix in a hot bantamweight division.
There’s a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get right into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and go over some of the night’s notable scraps.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Main Event
Chris Weidman +151
Kelvin Gastelum -191
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -160, under +130
Common Sense Betting
To be honest, Gastelum could probably be a much bigger favorite here. While Weidman has been relatively competitive in three straight losses, he’s failed to assert himself offensively and has been brutally knocked out in all of them. At 33, it’s obvious that he’s fast declining physically.
Gastelum is exactly the type of speedy, hard-to-takedown fighter that gives Weidman fits. If this was a three-rounder, there’d be a chance that The All-American could win two out of three rounds by grinding and escape with a decision. But five rounds against a jitterbug with heavy hands like Gastelum is too much for the former champ.
UFC odds pick: Gastelum to win at -191
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez -200
Darren Elkins +160
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +210
Common Sense Betting
One should never count out Darren Elkins, especially after his miracle comeback against Mirsad Bektic. But expecting “The Damage” to keep prevailing over better fighters is a good way to lose your money.
Bermudez has his faults - he’s got a questionable chin and his defense can lapse at any time. But he’s already beaten plenty of guys on Elkins’ level, and he’s got the punching power and wrestling to win this fight on multiple fronts. If “The Menace” runs into any trouble on the feet, Elkins’ weak takedown defense makes him a target.
UFC odds pick: Bermudez to win at -200
Bantamweight
Jimmie Rivera -200
Thomas Almeida +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -200, under +160
Common Sense Betting
It’s hard not to fall in love with Almeida’s explosive power and flashy style. But Rivera is exactly the type of sturdy, no-nonsense fighter that can cut straight to the chase and make it a dogfight. The question is whether who is better equipped to handle a mano-a-mano type matchup.
While Almeida has a ridiculous knockout rate, Rivera’s sturdy frame is built to take damage that he usually returns two-fold. And if all else fails, he can implement his stifling clinch game to muzzle the youngster’s offense.
UFC odds pick: Rivera to win at -200
Light Heavyweight
Gian Villante -180
Patrick Cummins +140
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -190, under +150
Common Sense Betting
Tough call here between two solid light heavyweights. Cummins is your typical fighter with a wrestling base - strong and durable with good cardio. Villante loves to strike and has got good pop in both hands. Neither is an impressive athlete, but they both have extraordinary toughness.
The question here is whether Cummins can get this fight to the ground. Considering Villante’s 81% takedown defense, that will be a tough proposition. But expect Cummins to at least keep him pressed into the cage for the majority of the fight, which should be enough to take a decision.
UFC odds pick: Cummins to win at +140
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UFC on FOX 25 takes place on Saturday, July 22, 2017 at the Nassau Coliseum in Long Island, New York. The card airs live on FOX starting 9 p.m. ET.
