Middleweight contenders Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (24-5, 3 KOs, 17 SUBs) and Derek Brunson (18-5, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet at UFC on FOX 27 on January 27, 2018 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The main card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
It’s fair to wonder how much Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza has left in the tank at 38 years old. But with his only losses in his past 12 fights coming against Yoel Romero and now-champion Robert Whittaker, Jacare is still considered one of the best 185-pounders in the world. However, to protect his No. 3 ranking, he’ll have to stave off Derek Brunson in the main event of UFC on FOX 27 this Saturday in Charlotte.
Brunson comes into the matchup with two straight wins, both coming by way of first-round knockout. He’s ready to make a run at the title, and a victory over Jacare would signal his arrival as a legitimate contender.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and surmise your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Derek Brunson +120
Jacare Souza -140
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -127, under +107
Matchup Breakdown
There was a point where Brunson fancied himself a brawler. For some reason, he completely disregarded his grappling roots and became a haymaker machine in search of knockouts. And for a while, it worked. The 34-year old racked up a give fight win streak, with four first-round knockouts to boot.
That all came to an end against Robert Whittaker, who taught him a lesson about charging forward recklessly by head kicking him into oblivion. That set Brunson back on his heels, as he looked jittery in a contentious decision loss to Anderson Silva. But in his two most recent outings, we’re finally seeing a polished, patient Brunson.
An elite athlete with explosive punching power, Brunson is no longer forcing the issue. Against Daniel Kelly, he patiently waited for the first strike and obliterated the Australian with blazing counterpunch. And in a matchup with Machida, Brunson quickly figured out that “The Dragon” had no answer for his speed.
This is a version of Brunson that’s extremely dangerous for a guy like Jacare. The Brazilian is nowhere near as fleet-footed, and he will have a difficult time closing the distance. Jacare is a powerful, technical boxer, but far more dangerous when he’s able to back up his opponents against the cage. That will be hard to do against a quicker fighter like Brunson.
Though Jacare is a dogged takedown artist, Brunson boasts a 100% takedown defense rate. We all saw what happened to Souza when he couldn’t take down Whittaker. Brunson might not be able to make Brunson pay as badly, but it’s easy to see him doing a lot of damage in a boxing exchange.
UFC Betting Tips
This is a tough fight to pick a winner: Souza has beaten better fighters than Brunson, but this is a poor matchup for him. Brunson has the type of athleticism and takedown defense that gave Souza fits against Whittaker, although he is not as skilled a boxer. We lean towards Brunson to take the win as he should be able to keep the fight standing. A small bet makes sense at these odds.
UFC Odds Pick: Brunson to win at +120
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UFC on FOX 27 takes place on January 27, 2018 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The main card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
