Former bantamweight champion Renan Barao (34-5, 8 KOs, 15 SUBs) will meet Brian Kelleher (18-8, 7 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC on FOX 28 on Saturday, February 24, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, and get the latest betting previews, predictions and picks now.
T.J. Dillashaw really did a number on Renan Barao. The Brazilian was cruising as the bantamweight champion, riding a 33-fight unbeaten streak, until he was bodied up by T.J. in 2014 and los his belt. Including that loss, Barao is just 2-4 in his past six and is desperate for a reboot. This Saturday, Barao will hope to get his groove back against Brian Kelleher.
For Barao, a loss to an unknown fighter like Kelleher could render him irrelevant in an increasingly competitive division. So how will Barao perform with his back against the wall?Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and go over your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Renan Barao -155
Brian Kelleher +125
Over/under coming soon!
Coming Into the Scrap
Renan Barao was once called the world’s best pound-for-pound fighter by Dana White. Was the Baldfather hyping a fight? Yes, he was. But you could’ve made the argument at the time. Maybe the division caught up with him. After beating Urijah Faber, he just started getting lit up by some of the heavier hitters. A move up to featherweight didn’t help, as he was taken out by Jeremy Stephens and Aljamain Sterling.
Kelleher enters the matchup on a 8-1 run. With two wins and one loss in the octagon, Kelleher does have promise, and he’s an accomplished finisher whose able to end fights on the feet or on the mat. Beating Barao doesn’t mean what it used to, but he’s still a former champion that would be the most impressive win of Kelleher’s career.
Matchup Breakdown
Barao doesn’t appear to be physically declining, so what’s with all the recent losses? Perhaps Dillashaw shook him more than we realized. Or exposed his tendency to surge forward in straight lines, with a lack of head movement against counterpunches. It appears the division’s elite has caught up to him - and surpassed a stagnant fighter whose reached his ceiling.
Still, the 31-year old isn’t a guy you write off. He’s an accomplished BJJ player and a dangerous technical kickboxer. Comfortable inside and outside the pocket, Barao will outfight against bigger guys and pressure early against outmatches strikers. It’s nearly impossible to take him down, as shown by his 95% takedown defense rate.
Kelleher is a wrestle-boxer who’s at his best when he’s playing the bully. He likely won’t be able to take Barao down, so forcing his way into the clinch is his best option at victory. Trying to engage in a kickboxing match with him would prove futile - Barao is the far better overall strikers.
His aggression could be problematic for the Brazilian, as Barao has a tendency to get overwhelmed. Kelleher has plus killer instincts, scoring plenty of opportune finishes that showcase a deep knowledge of submission setups and good power. If Barao gets shook early, that could easily snowball in Kelleher’s favor.
UFC Betting Tips
Barao has never been so vulnerable, but he still should be the favorite against a midcard dude like Kelleher. The Brazilian’s takedown defense will force a boxing match, and that’ll give him a huge edge. Barao to win is a safe bet, and the price is playable as a straight play.
If Kelleher approaches anywhere near +150, a small hedge bet makes some sense. We don’t know where Barao’s head is at, and even though this is a winnable fight he hasn’t given much reason to put too much faith in him.
UFC Odds Pick: Barao to win at -155
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UFC on FOX 28 takes place on Saturday, February 24, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
