We’re about to find out if Edson Barboza has what it takes to maintain his elite lightweight ranking. Fresh off a career-defining victory over Anthony Pettis, the No. 6 ranked Brazilian will welcome back former Strikeforce champion and contender Gilbert Melendez back to the octagon after the Skrap Pack product served a year suspension for PEDs.
The bout will serve as the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC on FOX 20, headlined by a women’s bantamweight contender matchup between Holly Holm and Valentina Shevchenko. Let’s break down the fight and odds.
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Gilbert Melendez
Edson Barboza
Over/under rounds, over , under
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Melendez comes in as the favorite, even though he’s just 1-3 in his past four fights. Barboza has more to prove before oddsmakers favor him in high profile fights, and he has trouble with wrestlers like Gilbert. The over/under is understandably set at 2.5 rounds, considering that both men usually fight to the final bell.
FIGHT PREVIEW
Melendez can do everything well, and he’s one of the better wrestle-boxers in the sport. Training with the Diaz brothers every day has vastly improved his hands over the years, and he excels in finding angles and landing hard combinations. Another benefit of training with the Diaz bros is great cardio. His fight at altitude in Mexico City aside, Melendez is capable of pushing a hard pace for five rounds.
We’ve seen Melendez grind down opponents with clinch-heavy approaches and wrestling on a few occasions. He’s happy to press guys into the cage and string together long takedown attempts in efforts to get the fight to the mat. While not a submission threat, he is one of the best ground-and-pound lightweights from the top ride.
Barboza is a pure striker, and a lethal one when he has time and space to get off. The most dangerous aspect of his standup is his kicks, best characterized by his immortalized wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim. He is a true four limbed kickboxer, fluidly mixing in knees and elbows in his kick-punch combinations.
The Brazilian also is one of the best athletes at 155, and he utilizes his speed to move laterally and set up explosive counterpunches. At this point, he is used to facing pressure fighters and generally does well against guys who want to fight in close, but sometimes it will look like he’s in retreat mode as he tries to maintain distance at all times.
BREAKDOWN AND PREDICTION
Melendez will want to make this a grind and press Barboza into the cage as soon as possible. Any lesser fighter would probably fail to do this against an athletic specimen like Barboza. But Melendez is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division and should be able to impose his game plan.
While he might have trouble corralling Barboza early, I expect Melendez to make this an ugly fight. He should be able to control the Brazilian for two of three rounds and nab a unanimous decision.
UFC Odds: Melendez UD Barboza
HOW TO BET
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