While Gilbert Burns - 10-0, 3 KOs, 6 SUBs - and Rashid Magomedov - 18-1, 8 KOs, 1 SUB - aren’t exactly known commodities in a stacked lightweight division, they could very well force their way into the top-10 sooner than later.
The two prospects will meet each other this Saturday in a compelling bout that could vault the winner into a matchup against a ranked opponent.
CURRENT ODDS
Check our online UFC Fight Night 77 odds for the latest money lines on each fighter, and expect Magomedov to be the favorite going into the bout. The round total for this three-rounder is likely to be set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being the more expensive play. Prop bets, like whether the fight goes to decision, are also available, as well as live betting once the bout begins. Please note that our odds are updated daily and are subject to change as more action comes in.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Burns is Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, and is 3-0 since joining the UFC with wins over Andreas Stahl, Christos Giagos and Alex Oliveira. His past two wins have come by way of armbar, and it’s clear that the Brazilian’s BJJ background is translating at the highest level.
But it would be mistake to think that Burns is a one-dimensional fighter, as he’s also developed into very good striker. An outstanding athlete, he throws hard punch combinations and snaps kicks at all levels. He’s comfortable moving forward and on the counter, and he’s got excellent timing on his takedowns in both those phases.
What’s more, Burns is an excellent wrestler, with a variety of trips and throws from the clinch to go with textbook shoots. And when he gets a fight to the mat, he’s as good as you’d expect a world champion jiu-jitsu player to be. Smooth passes and lightning quick submission attempts are the norm for Burns.
Magomedov is a classic sprawl-and-brawl fighter, except he’s evolved that approach with his technical striking. The Dagestani native throws whipping kicks with no setup, delivers deft punching combination with textbook mechanics and seamlessly transitions from offense to defense.
Because he’s so good at punching people, we often forget that Magomedov is an accomplished wrestler. He is nearly impossible to take down, and if that happens he powers right back up with brute strength. While he doesn’t really utilize his offensive wrestling, he’ll shoot just enough to keep opponents guessing.
In all honesty, this is an extremely tough fight to call. It all boils down to whether Burns can get this fight to the ground, where he holds a distinct advantage over Magomedov. I think the Brazilian might be successful once or twice, but I just don’t see the Dagestan native being held down for the majority of three rounds. Magomedov should be able to fend off enough takedowns and dish out enough punishment in the standup to take a unanimous decision.
THE SMART PLAYS
I like Magomedov to win, but it’s more of a gut call since I think the talent level is so close. The over is the safest play in this matchup, since Burns will likely spend a good chunk of time tying Magomedov up in an attempt to get this fight to the ground. But beyond that, this might be a fight you just want to avoid in the sportsbook altogether.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! Burns-Magomedov takes place on November 7, 2015 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida State Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The main card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
