If you want to make money betting UFC fights then you can’t just take the favorite in every fight. For the year, favorites have won 62% of the fights but that number is not high enough to make money backing favorites unless you pick and choose your spots very carefully. Underdogs have more than held their own in 2016 including this past weekend when they won six times at UFC Fight Night 101. Let’s take a look at betting UFC underdogs including The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale on Saturday in Las Vegas on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.
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Underdogs Cash
If you look back over the past two years in UFC betting you will find that underdogs have won about 38% of the time. It didn’t use to be that way in the UFC as favorites were a great bet many years ago but recently, especially in the last two years the matchups have been better and underdogs have been cashing.
This past weekend at UFC Fight Night 101 it was Andrew Holbrook delivering in a big way at almost a 4-1 underdog against Jake Matthews. While that fight was a big win for the underdog and not typical, underdogs of about 2-1 have more than held their own this year and you seem to get at least one that delivers for you every week.
Looking back at 2016 there have been some big underdogs who have cashed including Eric Spicely who defeated Thiago Santos at UFC Fight Night 95 as a 5-1 underdog. And underdogs can even cash in marquee fights as was proven at UFC 196 when Nate Diaz came through as a 3-1 underdog against Conor McGregor and when Michael Bisping beat Luke Rockhold as a 4-1 underdog at UFC 199.
The underdogs have been on a really nice run lately going back to UFC Fight Night 95 when they won 6 of 13 bouts. It got even better at UFC Fight Night 96 as underdogs won 8 of 12 fights. It wasn’t quite as good at UFC 204 or at UFC Fight Night 98 as the dogs won just 4 of 11 in each event. UFC 205 was okay as the dogs went 5-5. The underdogs went just 4-9 at UFC Fight Night 99 but at UFC Fight Night 100 they went 5-7 and at UFC Fight Night 101 they went 6-7.
UFC betting is not that much different than other sports betting as the public likes the favorite. When the UFC first started the matchups were not nearly as good as they are now so favorites did much better. The matches now are much more competitive which means underdogs cash more often.
There are many good betting opportunities to take underdogs in the UFC including the preliminary fights where some fighters are relative unknowns. There are some good fighters who come from outside of the UFC and they are oftentimes listed as underdogs when they make their UFC debut. These fighters can oftentimes present excellent betting value against the “name” fighters.
The bottom line when betting UFC is that when it doubt, take the underdog. You can’t just blindly take every underdog and make money because the juice is simply too high but there is no question that underdogs do have value each week in UFC events.
This weekend features The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale in Las Vegas. Unless there is a shocking upset there will be no value in the main event as Demetrious Johnson should win easily but there could be some value on the other fights with three fighters listed at about +200 at BookMaker.
Henry Cejudo is nearly a 2-1 underdog in what looks to be a competitive fight against Joseph Benavidez, Jake Ellenberger is a 2-1 underdog in his fight against Jorge Masvidal, Jared Cannonier is nearly a 2-1 dog against Ion Cutelaba, Alexis Davis is +155 against Sara McMann and Matt Schnell is a 2-1 dog against Rob Font.
How to Bet
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