There might not be a brighter UFC prospect at 135-pounds than Brazilian Thomas Almeida - 19-0, 15 KOs, 3 SUBs. Not only is he undefeated, he’s racked up a frightening number of knockouts at just 24 years old. Next up for Almeida is a fight in his home city of Sao Paulo, and he’ll face a solid veteran in Anthony Birchak - 12-2, 4 KOs, 6 SUBs.
CURRENT ODDS
Check out our current UFC Fight Night 77 odds for the latest money lines. Currently, Almeida is clear favorite around -400, while Birchak is a sizeable underdog at +300. The round total has been set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at -145 and the under at +125. Prop bets, like whether the fight goes to decision, are also available, as well as live betting once the bout begins. Please note that our odds are updated daily and are subject to change as more action comes in.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Almeida is a blue-chip prospect in every respect, but he truly shines as a technical striker with innate killer instincts. As a true four-limbed fighter, he operates behind a hard jab and stinging left low kick, and his excellent in slipping punches and countering with punishing combinations.
The Brazilian also excels in the clinch, with the strength to tie up opponents for a steady stream of knees and elbows. While he’s not an outstanding wrestler, he’s shown solid takedown defense behind a strong sprawl. When he does get taken to the ground, he’s got great hips that lets him escape from the bottom.
But what separates Almeida from other up-and-coming fighters is his pace. He just never stops throwing, often throwing more than 20 strikes a minute. And what’s scary is that he has the cardio to keep it up for three rounds or more. Of course, throwing that many strikes does leave him open to getting hit - but he showed a great chin in his war with Brad Pickett at UFC 189.
Birchak is relentless in terms of aggression, and he loves to throw punch-kick combinations to work his way into the clinch. From there, he’s got a variety of skills he’s good at. He’ll stay busy with knees and elbows, and will sneak in powerful punches for good measure. This dirty boxing style can wear opponents down quickly.
While still in the clinch, Birchak has the strength, size and wrestling background to drag fights to the mat. He’s particularly good at inside trips and hip tosses, and when he gets on top he dishes out a brutal ground-and-pound game.
Birchak is a decent fighter, but Almeida has the makings of a stud. I expect Birchak to try to bully the Brazilian to avoid the striking game, but he’s not strong enough to do so over three rounds. Almeida should be able to wear down Birchak with his frenetic pace and seal a unanimous decision.
THE SMART PLAYS
Almeida to win is very expensive at -400, but there’s little doubt he can handle a mid-tier opponent like Birchak. I think the best value lies in the over on 1.5 rounds, which is a bit low considering that the American is a big, physical specimen that’s never been knocked out. If Almeida does finish the fight, it’ll most likely be later in the fight once Birchak starts slowing down.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! Almeida-Birchak takes place on November 7, 2015 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida State Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The main card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
