The last time we saw Alexander Gustaffson in the octagon, we saw a broken man. He was more than a fighter who had just been brutally assaulted and knocked out in the first round. He was a man who felt he had failed his country. Fighting in his hometown, in front of a rabid crowd of his countrymen, Gustaffson failed to earn another title shot against the living legend he nearly dethroned. What’s more, he had been humilaited in the process.
But now, Gustaffson has an opportunity to emerge from the worst loss of his career as a champion. With Jon Jones stripped of his title, the division is now wide open. The first man to take advantage was Daniel Cormier, who controlled Anthony Johnson en route to winning the vacant belt. And although Gustaffson had his ass handed to him by Johnson, he still remains one of the top contenders in the weight class. It’s time for him to pick himself up and complete a fairytale comeback.
THE FIGHT BREAKDOWN
A former amateur boxer, Gustaffson is one of the best strikers in the division. He works behind a long jab that he often doubles up, followed by right hand straight down the pipe. The Swede loves to throw uppercuts to catch opponents who change levels and has a nice side step with counter hooks.
Gustaffson’s technique on the feet is masterful. His mechanics are flawless, letting him throw a high volume of strikes with maximum efficiency. While he doesn’t have one-punch knockout power, he has snap to his punches that do real damage. He’s got excellent command of angles, and is extremely cerebral when it comes to distance and timing.
What’s more, Gustaffson is much more than just a great boxer. He strings together punch-kick combinations with grace, and his single kicks can stop fighters in their tracks. His height is a huge advantage in the clinch, letting him rein elbows and knees on hapless foes. When it comes to grappling, Gustaffson has superb takedown defense with an underrated takedown game of his own.
Cormier is first and foremost an elite wrestler. His Olympic wrestling back is well-known, and we’ve seen it in action against the likes of powerful men like Anthony Johnson. For the most part, if Cormier wants you on the ground, you’ll end up there sooner or later. That’s what happens when you combine world-class athleticism with a lifetime of Olympic-level training.
Working with Javier Mendez at AKA, Cormier has also built a strong, technical striking game. Though he’s just 5’10”, he possesses the speed to fight longer than his frame. And while he may look a bit paunchy, Cormier has the flexibility to throw crisp kicks at all levels.
Where Cormier excels is in the clinch. He uses his squat frame to bulldog opponents into the fence, where he unloads with uppercuts and short hooks. From there, he’s got a variety of ways to take fighters down, from high crotch lifts and single leg shots. And once Cormier gets the fight to the mat, he grinds the life out of opponents with a grueling top ride and powerful ground and pound.
OUR CURRENT ODDS: Cormier at -360, Gustaffson at +280
THE VALUE PICK
Honestly, I love Gustaffson at +280 right now. Cormier has yet to lose to anyone besides Jon Jones, but the Swede presents a similar set of problems as the former champ. For starters, they are both extremely tall and rangy for the division, giving Gustaffson the advantage at range.
Gustaffson’s takedown defense will also be severely tested, but unlike Anthony Johnson, he has the conditioning to keep up with Cormier. If Cormier devotes too much effort into taking him down, Gustaffson will likely be the fresher fighter in the championship rounds.
I see a lot of this fight taking place in the clinch, where Gustaffson’s height will gives him better leverage for both defensive and offensive purpose. If his back’s against the cage, he can spread his base wider than most fighters and avoid takedowns. If he gets Cormier onto the cage, his knees only have to travel and extremely short distance to hurt a fighter who’s half a foot shorter.
There’s a lot to like about Gustaffson in this fight, but the fact that you can make $280 with a $100 bet might just be the best part.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Cormier vs. Gustaffson odds. BookMaker offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. Their championship bout is scheduled for UFC 192, which takes place on October 3, 2015, at the Toyota Center in Houston. The main card is scheduled for pay-per-view
starting 10 p.m. ET, following the prelims on FOX Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
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