At the outset of the 2016 Summer Olympics, it wouldn't have been considered a massive surprise for Germany and Sweden to be meeting on the final day of the tournament. But to think that not just one, but both of these teams advanced to the gold medal match instead of the two dominant teams from North America is remarkable. The Cinderella story for one of the two teams will end with gold medals on Friday night at the famed Maracana, one of the best settings for soccer in the world.
This Olympics fixture is scheduled for Friday, August 19, 2016, at 4:30 p.m. ET at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. The match will be televised live on NBC Sports Network.
Odds Analysis
Neither Germany nor Sweden have been favorites all that often in this tournament, especially in the knockout rounds. In this case though, it will be the Germans who will ultimately be favored, perhaps by an odds-on margin.
Remember Silvia Neid has guided this team to some pretty impressive accolades in her career, including fourth place in the World Cup last year and winning the 2009 and 2013 Euros. She also won the World Cup in 2007 when the Germans were on top of the soccer world in both men's and women's action.
Sweden has really fallen off of late, and it was shockingly knocked out of the World Cup in the Round of 16. This was a real renaissance for women's soccer legend Pia Sundhage, and it might be the proudest moment of her career to have this team in the Olympics finale even after all of her years and all of her accomplishments with the United States for all those years before returning to take over her homeland.
Tournament Update
The giants have fallen over and over again in this tournament.
Let's not mistake Sweden for a team which has been dominant here in the Olympics; the team only has one win, that coming against lowly South Africa in the first match of this tournament. However, Sundhage has really gotten this team packed in tight at the back, and that has made a huge difference.
Sweden legitimately outplayed the United States and had more really good opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net. After that, Brazil probably had the upper hand for much of the game against the Swedes but were never able to score. Both matches were won by Sweden in penalties.
Germany started the tournament off with a predictable victory over Zimbabwe, but in the last two group stage matches, the team didn't look all that sharp. In the knockout rounds though, the Germans have turned it on. Their display especially against Canada was remarkable, as the 2-0 triumph was the best match we've seen out of any of these teams in the knockout rounds for our money.
Key Matchup
Are the Swedes going to show any passion going forward here? Hope Solo might have been dead wrong to call out Sweden for its passive play against the Americans, but in a way, she had a point which bettors should acknowledge. Sweden has really had no desire to push forward in this tournament for the most part.
It's not really like Sundhage to try to be this passive, but she knows she has a team which is outgunned here. The Germans have the better side for sure, but if Sweden is going to win this one, in all likelihood, it's going to have to show at least a little bit more aggression.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
We really want to like Sweden in this match, as it would be a great story for Sundhage, after all she accomplished with the Americans for years and years, to come back to her homeland and bring back gold medals.
However, in reality, the Germans are just too strong. Anja Mittag is one of the top strikers in the world, and though she's had a quiet tournament, we think she can be the difference maker. A scoreless draw wouldn't be shocking. A 1-0 German win though, is just as likely.
Olympics Odds: Germany 1, Sweden 0
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