Honduras should be counting its lucky stars that it qualified for the second stage of the Gold Cup. The team only advanced on the back of a forfeit by French Guiana in the second match of the group stage. The lease of the life for the Hondurans hasn't netted them much. Their reward is a duel against a Mexico team that has been either the favorite or the co-favorite to win the Gold Cup every step of the way.
This Gold Cup duel will go down Thursday, July 20, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at University of Phoenix Stadium. The match will be televised live on FOX Sports 1.
Odds Analysis
Mexico is set to be quite a heavy favorite in this match. After laying -800 against Curacao and ultimately winning in the final match of the group stage, this Mexican side is sure to be a huge favorite of at least a goal against Honduras. These two teams really shouldn't be on the same pitch together, even with Honduras ultimately fielding about as good of a side as it could while Mexico is largely asking a youth team to take the field.
The interesting number is going to be the total. These two teams have both struggled to ultimately put the ball in the back of the net; in fact, Honduras has yet to do so in 270 minutes in the Gold Cup.
We suspect the total to beat will be set at a flat 2, and it's possible that the under will be the slightly favored side of the two.
How They Got Here
This Mexican team looked like it flat out flipped off the switch against Curacao in the second half after dominating the first half in the final group stage match. In fairness to El Tri, they merely needed a point to win the group after scoring the initial goal against Curacao, and they ended up finishing the job anyway.
As was the case with the rest of the big boys in the tourney, Mexico managed seven points and wasn't really all that impressive in doing so. A 3-1 win over El Salvador was rather comprehensive, but El Tri struggled against Jamaica in a scoreless draw and had far too many suspect stretches against Curacao, one of the worst teams in this tournament.
If you haven't watched a moment of Honduran soccer in the Gold Cup, you literally haven't missed a thing. Honduras hasn't scored a goal, and the only one that it let in was relatively early against Costa Rica. The team is only here on the back of French Guiana's forfeit for fielding Florent Malouda, or else it would have finished last amongst the three third place teams in the group stage.
Still, Honduras' defensive record speaks for itself. It was easily the better team against both Canada and French Guiana, and it was surely deserving of more nothing in a match it played well in against Costa Rica. You could argue that this team could have won this group on seven points with a little bit better finishing in front of net. Alas, Anthony Lozano and the rest of the men in the front line have accomplished nothing as of yet in the Gold Cup.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
One key factor in this match is the presence of the huge Mexican fan base that won't have to travel far to get to Glendale. We suspect to see a massive crowd in favor of El Tri. No matter the quality of the roster Juan Carlos Osorio puts on the pitch, the expectations are the same. This crowd might be hard on the young Mexicans on the field, but we suspect they'll come up with a victory, albeit a very tough one against a Honduras side that is better than it has shown thus far in the Gold Cup.
Gold Cup Odds: Mexico 1, Honduras 0
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