No team has as much experience this deep in the Champions League as does Bayern Munich. This is the fifth straight season in which the German champs are in at least the semifinals of this tournament, and it would love nothing more than to make short work of Atletico Madrid here in the semis. The problem? Different Spanish teams have bounced Bayern out of the semifinals of the UCL in consecutive years, first Real Madrid, then Barcelona. The Atleti could lay the groundwork for a big upset on Wednesday night in the first leg of this home-and-home series at the Vicente Calderon.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atletico Madrid +167
Bayern Munich +150
Draw +210
Over/Under 2 (over -130)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Not surprisingly, the total in this matchup is going to be extremely low, at least in the first leg. Atletico Madrid is perfectly content just sitting back and picking the Bayern Munich defense apart with counterattacks as long as it stays firmly behind the ball without letting too much pressure come into its own box.
The total of 2 though, feels low for a Bayern Munich match. The Reds have only played one game in the knockout rounds of this tournament with fewer than four goals, that being the 1-0 first leg at home against Benfica in the quarterfinals.
Bayern Munich is the very slender favorite at +150, though Atletico Madrid is right there as well at +167 on the moneyline.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Bayern Munich didn't have the toughest route in the world to reach the semifinals taking out Portugal's Benfica after having to survive against Juventus a couple months ago. The Reds have been brilliant at the Allianz, but on the road, they've only mustered a pair of draws in the knockout rounds to date.
Atletico Madrid meanwhile, had the perfect game plan for picking off Barcelona. The Catalan giants were heavy favorites to get into the last four, but the Atleti had different ideas. Putting three men up front, albeit with a defensive mindset was brilliant against the three forwards Barcelona was bringing to the table, and the ball was on the feet of the Atleti more than it was of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez.
Yes, things got out of hand after Fernando Torres was dismissed on the road in the first leg and the team allowed two goals, but it got those two back at the Vicente Calderon, a place where Atletico Madrid has played phenomenally well this year.
LIVE BETTING
The reason Bayern Munich didn't ultimately put away Benfica easily is because it kept the ball away from Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller. These two have 16 goals between them in the UCL already this year, and they're going to have to add to that if the German champs are going to end up capturing this leg of their elusive treble.
The problem is that this is what Atletico Madrid is so brilliant at. It's so hard to win these 1-v-1 battles out on the wings, and if Bayern Munich isn't getting that from Artudo Vidal and others, that could neutralize the best weapons which the Reds are bringing to the table.
QUICK PICK
We fancy this to be a tactical match, one which plays right into the hands of Atletico Madrid. That said, at some point, the Spanish side is going to have to score a goal, and we don't see that happening. Manuel Neuer has allowed two goals in each of his away games in the knockout rounds, and he's only had one clean sheet in the four matches against Juve and Benfica.
This though, will be a change for sure. Atletico Madrid isn't going to show much in this first leg in hopes of getting back to the Allianz perhaps up 1-0. It won't happen. Bayern won't concede, but we aren't sure it's getting one either. We could be in for 90 exciting minutes, but those 90 might all be scoreless.
Champions League Odds: Atletico Madrid 0, Bayern Munich 0
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The fixture between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich will take place at 2:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at Vicente Calderon Stadium. The game will be broadcast live on FOX Sports 1.
