Atletico Madrid is largely looked upon as the third best team in Spain behind the giants from Barcelona and Real Madrid. But can the Atleti take that last giant step to get into the Champions League Final and put themselves on a perch atop European soccer? Even though they've got a 1-0 lead heading into the second leg of this home-and-home series against Bayern Munich, they've still got a long road ahead to get through.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Bayern Munich -163
Atletico Madrid +525
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (under -117)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Bayern Munich might be behind by a goal, but it's favored by said goal on the Asian Handicap. The big problem the Germans will have in this match is the fact that allowing a goal would be a disaster. If that turns out to be the case, Bayern Munich will have to score at least three times and win by two goals if it wants to get into the finale.
Atletico Madrid is a +525 underdog to win this match on the moneyline, though that would be a stunning result.
The total of 2.5 is fairly low for a Bayern Munich match at the Allianz, but the vig of -117 suggests that this could be a low scoring affair.
THE FIRST LEG
We knew coming into this series that Bayern Munich was going to have the possession of the ball for most of these 180 minutes. The team had 74 percent of the ball in the first leg and ripped off 20 shots, seven of which were on Jan Oblak's goal.
However, the moment of brilliance didn't come from Robert Lewandowski or Robert Muller. Instead, it came from Saul Niguez.
Niguez came out of nowhere to put the one ball home early on, and he did so on an epic run right down the pitch for over 40 yards to beat Manuel Neuer.
Bayern Munich had every chance in the world to score, particularly at the end of the match. All four of Douglas Costa, David Alaba, Medhi Benatia and Arturo Vidal had a shot at the net in stoppage time, but the stout defense for Atletico Madrid and Oblak's play in net proved to be the difference.
LIVE BETTING
We've got a real question here about Muller and Lewandowski. These two men have combined for 16 goals in the Champions League this season, but the two have combined for just one goal in the last seven halves of soccer in the UCL for the Reds. Bayern Munich has plenty of talent aside from these two, but this is where the goals are usually coming from and will have to come from in order to overturn this result.
Atletico Madrid did a fantastic job of keeping those two under wraps for the most, and it encouraged Bayern to try to shoot from distance while keeping the proverbial bus packed in tight in front of Oblak in the 18-yard box.
QUICK PICK
Bayern Munich has the better talent of these two teams, and at some point, Lewandowski in particular will end up cutting loose and getting into space. We saw this play out when the pressure was really on the Bavarians against Juventus in the Round of 16 when both Lewandowski and Muller scored in the last 20 minutes of the match to send it to extra time, and we think we're going to see it here against a very determined Atletico Madrid side as well.
Bayern Munich only needs one to pour the pressure back on the Atleti, and when push comes to shove, we think it'll get that one and one more to punch its ticket to the final and erase the memories of consecutive semifinal losses to other Spanish sides.
Champions League Odds: Bayern Munich 2, Atletico Madrid 0
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