It was always a longshot for Benfica to stick around in the Champions League, but it's hard to suggest that a 1-0 loss on the road in the first leg against Bayern Munich was truly a bad result. The Portuguese side still has a long road to plow through to pull off this upset of the defending champs, but they'll give it their best on Wednesday night at the Estadio da Luz.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Benfica +460
Bayern Munich -156
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (under -112)
ODDS ANALYSIS
It's not a shock that Bayern Munich is favored in this fixture, even on the road against one of Portugal's best teams. Estadio da Luz is a tough place to play for sure, but it's clear who the better of these clubs are.
That said, the -156 price isn't convincing. Let's not forget that a draw, or even a one-goal loss with a goal scored would put the Reds into the semifinals of the Champions League, and that – not winning this 90 minute period – is the true goal.
That's why the total in this match is just 2.5 and -112 vig on the under. Sure, things could open up, especially if that first goal comes in the first half, but it doesn't necessarily have to for Bayern Munich to feel good about itself.
THE FIRST LEG
It isn't often that a goal scored in the first few minutes of a match is good enough to see a team through, but it almost appears as if that's what Bayern Munich is determined to do. Arturo Vidal found the back of the net just two minutes into the first leg, and Pep Guardiola consistently asked his side to back off and not take too many chances going forward.
It's almost as if Bayern is daring Benfica to try to come forward and score. That wasn't the case in a drab first leg at the Allianz, as the Portuguese side only managed 10 shots, just one of which was on target. There were plenty of fouls and four cards to go around, but Benfica was seemingly content with the 1-0 loss, while Bayern Munich merely played keep away in the middle of the pitch, earning 68 percent of the possession in the process.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
At some point, Benfica is going to have to come forward in this match, and we're just not sure when that's going to happen. Jonas and Kostas Mitroglou didn't have a slew of opportunities at the front, and there just weren't enough players in a four-man midfield to keep the ball away from the five which Bayern Munich put out there.
We expect to see a defensive arrangement again in this match for the Reds, as they'll only let Robert Lewandowski poke around in the Benfica defense to see if he can make things happen. We doubt that he'll be able to for the first hour or so.
Benfica won't want to make a mistake and give up the away goal that would end this fixture, but at some point, that's exactly what's going to happen. You can't keep this Bayern Munich team off the scoreboard forever, and even if this match is as slow as the first was with chances few and far between, it won't be enough for the fans to go home happy at the Estadio da Luz.
Champions League Odds: Bayern Munich 1, Benfica 0
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