Germany enters Euro 2016 as the second favorite to win its second straight major international tournament. We've seen champions struggle before in these events though, and this first match against Ukraine is just sneaky enough to be dangerous, yet not sneaky enough to make most believe the World Cup holders will struggle.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Germany -185
Ukraine +600
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (under -117)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Favorites right in this range in these major tournaments are always tough to handicap. That -185 price on Germany insinuates that it should win this match comfortably, but one look at the -1 spread on the Asian Handicap should worry any favorite bettors. A draw or an upset is the only way for Ukraine to cover this number, though the return on investment from a one-goal victory is a nice fallback plan if you want the pups.
The total should also be a little alarming. Germany could easily beat the 2.5 goals on its own in this or any other match, but the fact that most of the totals to kick off Euro 2016 are set at a flat 2 is another hint that this could be a tighter match than you'd think.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
Germany really hasn't been at its best in the lead up to Euro 2016. Part of the problem Joachim Lowe has is that he hasn't had Per Mertesacker or Philipp Lahm in defense, and those problems at the back are starting to tell. Sure, the Germans shut down Hungary in their most recent friendly, but they also allowed three goals to Slovakia, one to Italy and three to England prior to that, and we're only going so far back as March.
Germany also allowed nine goals in 10 matches in qualifying for Euro 2016, and considering the fact that two of those matches came against Gibraltar, a team outscored 56-2 in qualifying, that's not all that impressive.
Ukraine needed to play two extra matches to reach the Euros by winning the home-and-home playoff with Slovenia. Andriy Yarmolenko has been on fire for the Ukrainians, scoring a goal in three straight matches for his country to give him 25 for his career, second only to the great Andriy Shevchenko.
LIVE BETTING
Stopping Yarmolenko is going to be the key for the Germans. This midfield with Sami Khedira, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Ozil, Andre Schurrle, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller is absolutely stacked. We know these men can go forward, and we know they can play keep-away, but they really have to be careful to not go forward so much that they leave themselves open for a disaster on the other end of the pitch.
The Ukrainians are very good on the counterattack thanks to Yarmolenko and Yevhen Seleznyov up front, and live bettors will need to be careful for sure. It's all fine and dandy to bet on the Germans in live betting when they've got such great possession of the ball, but at a moment's notice, it could all change.
QUICK PICK
Germany has struggled at the back, but we think Lowe is going to make a much more conscious effort here to get his team to be cautious. That's not to say that the Germans won't ultimately win this match, but don't think they're going to end up walking away with this match with ease even if they do have 65 or 70 percent of the possession as is entirely possible.
Ukraine is good enough to win this match, though it's obviously going to have to do so against the run of play if it will. With as dangerous as the Ukrainians are, Germany isn't going to be able to take a ton of chances, and the end result could be yet another low-scoring match.
Euro 2016 Odds: Germany 1, Ukraine 0
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