Italy couldn't have possibly seen this coming. A team which won its group and seemed destined for a relatively easy jaunt into the quarterfinals is all of a sudden a massive underdog and is very likely going to be heading home very quickly from France. It's not the Italians' fault, though. It's Spain who underachieved and lost its group, and now, La Roja and the Azzurri are meeting in a Round of 16 duel in Euro 2016 which feels a lot more like a final than anything else.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Italy +340
Spain +112
Draw +192
Over/Under 2 (under -160)
ODDS ANALYSIS
It looks like a final, and the betting odds suggest it'll look like a final, too. Italy is a relatively big underdog and is +340 to win this match in regulation, but it isn't all that far off from being able to advance if you just look at the rest of the odds.
Spain, in spite of the fact that it's deservingly the betting favorite, is only +112 on the moneyline. The fact that the total is so low at a flat 1.5 for all intents and purposes is why the draw is only +192. A scoreless draw is a very believable result.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
No team made it through the opening round of the Euros with a perfect mark of nine points, but both of these teams had the opportunity to do so.
Italy must be forgiven for punting its last Group E match against Ireland. The Irish needed all three points to advance from the group, and they played it as if it was their World Cup Final. Meanwhile, the Azzurri had already sealed their fate as the Group E winners, and in fact, they already knew that there was no avoiding this match against Spain when they stepped on the pitch.
La Roja though, had no excuse whatsoever. They were on six points with rather convincing wins against the Czech Republic and Turkey to show for their work but they needed to avoid defeat against Croatia to set themselves up for what probably would've been an easy run to the Euro 2016 final.
Instead, Spain punted the match, losing out in the 87th minute 2-1 after taking a 1-0 lead in the first seven minutes. The punishment? The Spanish now have to play in the loaded bottom half of the draw instead of the top half. They could've had a road to the final including Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium, and now, they're going to have to go through Italy, Germany and France or England in all likelihood.
LIVE BETTING
The most organized defense in this tournament thus far has been that of the Italians. Oh sure, Ireland got the goal is so desperately craved on Wednesday, but that was a much different Italy lineup than the one we'll see on Monday.
History doesn't bode well for Spain here, as Gianluigi Buffon has had a really good time in the past against it. Tiki-taka is all fine and dandy, but the Italians are going to be perfectly content to allow Spain possession. You can guarantee though, when it comes to balls in that final third, La Roja is going to have a hard time finding their footing.
QUICK PICK
This match screams for 90 minutes of scoreless soccer as we see it, and we think there's a lot of value in playing Italy. We just can't fault the reserve team for losing to Ireland, and if that's the case, the Italians are the only ones to go through the group stage effectively unblemished. They overachieved when they beat Belgium in Lyon to start their tournament, and if they're anywhere near as good in this one against Spain, we think they've got a good chance to dismiss the two-time title holders, even if it has to go all the way to penalties.
Euro 2016 Odds: Italy 0, Spain 0 (Italy advances on penalties)
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The fixture between Italy and Spain will take place on Monday, June 27, 2016, at 12:00 p.m. at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
