The last spot in the semifinals of Copa America Centenario will be handed out on Saturday night in Santa Clara, where Mexico and Chile will meet in what should be the most competitive of the four quarterfinal ties.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Mexico hasn't generally gotten the respect of some of the great teams in the world, but at 9-1-0 since Juan Carlos Osorio has taken over as the team's manager, it's tough to argue with that fact.
El Tri will very likely be favored in this match, but this isn't a given that they'll advance. Don't forget that Chile put forth the best fight against Argentina in the group stage, and it's still the defending champ of this tournament.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
For the most part, these two teams both did what they were expected to do in the opening round of Copa America Centenario.
Mexico finished off Uruguay and Jamaica with ease before taking its foot off of the gas pedal against Venezuela. It's tough to with the 1-1 draw knowing that El Tri really didn't feel like they were playing for the Group C title. Of course, as we came to know, the difference between winning the group and losing it was playing Argentina and avoiding it until the final.
Chile really didn't even come remotely close to beating Argentina, though it did at least score a goal in the dying moments to carry some momentum forward for the rest of the Group D matches. The Chileans went on to take out Bolivia, albeit thanks to a penalty in the tenth minute of stoppage time, and they followed that with a win over Panama. As it turned out, the goal against Bolivia didn't really change anything. Chile would've been through to the second round as the second place finisher of this group on either four or six points.
LIVE BETTING
Even though this Mexican side isn't quite full, having Andres Guardado back in the fold is going to be a big boost for sure. He's the captain of the team and is often the director of traffic when push comes to shove. This is still a really young team, and men like Javier Hernandez, Oribe Peralta and Jesus Corona are still not necessarily ready to play at this level.
We'll see in a hurry whether Mexico is going to be able to stand up to the physicality of these big boy South American teams. It did against Uruguay, but there was always something a little off about the Uruguayans without Luis Suarez on the pitch.
QUICK PICK
These two teams played in a friendly a couple weeks ago, and Chile thoroughly outplayed Mexico for our money. Sure, the Mexicans won the match, but this is a different time and a meaningful match. Generally speaking, the team with the run of play for the majority of the match ends up going through in these knockout rounds.
Arturo Vidal, Eduardo Vargas and Alexis Sanchez are really playing up to their potential right now, as all three men bagged a brace in the opening round of this tournament somewhere along the way, and if they're able to find space to run through the Mexican defense, this could be a long match for El Tri.
That said, we'd suspect this match heads into a shootout. Remember that in Copa America, there's no such thing as extra time, and that could bode better for the Mexicans than it does for the Chileans.
Given the choice, we'd rather back Chile on the Asian Handicap, but we suspect home field advantage will end up finally sending Mexico onto the next round thanks to penalties.
Copa America Odds: Mexico 1, Chile 1 (Mexico Advances on Penalties)
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