There isn't a team flying much higher heading into Copa America Centenario than Mexico. El Tri has been playing fantastic ball under new manager Juan Carlos Osorio, and they really believe they can not only win Group C, but the entire tournament as well.
Their first offering will come against Uruguay on Sunday night in a match which they should have a huge home field advantage for in Glendale.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mexico +165
Uruguay +180
Draw +225
Over/Under 2 (over -135)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Before Luis Suarez got dinged up at the end of the year playing for Barcelona, we would've told you that Mexico would be a dog in this match. As it is though, Uruguay is going to struggle to replace arguably its best player, and that's really going to help out the Mexicans in this one.
Mexico is the +165 favorite on the moneyline, though that only translates to PK -115 on the Asian Handicap.
The totals in Copa America are basically all very low to start the tournament, and 2 with -135 vig on the over is no exception in this match.
RECENT FORM
Los Charruas decided to play just one match to prepare for this tournament, and they made it a good one, beating Trinidad & Tobago 3-1. This is obviously a much tougher match than that one was, but at least there's a good sense of form here for Uruguay. The team is now 5-1-1 in its last seven matches, and that form really has put it on a good path to ensure safety to the World Cup in 2018 as well in Russia.
Osorio and the Mexicans though, are really playing well. They've got eight wins in a row until their belts and haven't allowed a goal in their last seven. The last team to score against El Tri was the United States in the Confederations Cup Final, a match which was won 3-2 in extra time.
Has the competition been the greatest for Mexico? Not exactly. The toughest match of the bunch was probably against Paraguay, and that won't be comparable to this fixture. The last time Mexico played anyone anywhere near this good was Argentina last September, a match which was drawn 2-2 in Arlington.
LIVE BETTING
Andres Guardado was a fantastic captain for the Mexicans in the Gold Cup, and he's earned the right to wear that armband once again. Live bettors will have to see a lot out of the PSV man though, as he's one of just four true midfielders being carried on the roster.
Still, it's who's not here for this match which might make the difference in live betting. Mexico didn't even give Carlos Vela a call to come to Copa America, and Giovani dos Santos decided to not play for the team in a surprising move which might leave a gaping hole at the front alongside Javier Hernandez.
With Suarez still nursing a hamstring injury for at least the first week of this tournament though, it's Uruguay who has the biggest gap in the roster. Edinson Cavani is fantastic, but he's not the type of striker who typically can go at it alone. Abel Hernandez or Cristhian Stuani are the men who will be asked to step into that role vacated by Suarez, and that's a big ask for sure.
QUICK PICK
Both Mexico and Uruguay know that not screwing this match up should leave both in a fine position to get out of Group C. Jamaica and Venezuela really shouldn't provide troubles to either team, and five points should be enough to get both clear to the quarterfinals.
That's why we suspect this match is going to be more about feeling the other out than anything else. We've been forecasting a lot of under matches in this opening round, and we wouldn't be surprised if this one finished without a goal as well. If we had to take a side, it would be Mexico on the Asian Handicap, but we suspect in the end, this one will be a return of all spread bets to those who wagered on the match.
Copa America Odds: Mexico 0, Uruguay 0
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