Robert Lewandowski is one of the biggest names in Euro 2016. It's just too bad that he doesn't play on an elite level team. Poland has had some nice results largely thanks to him along the road to Euro 2016, but he's going to be needed more than ever in the first match in this tournament against Northern Ireland.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Poland -145
Northern Ireland +485
Draw +257
Over/Under 2 (over -130)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Goals are always hard to come by in the opening stages of these big time tournaments, and the oddsmakers are expecting this match to be much of the same. The total is just 2 with -130 vig on the over.
You'd think that Poland would be favored by more than a -145 margin, though. The Poles have one of the best players in the world on their side, and they've generally had some pretty good success against these supposed lesser teams. Northern Ireland has never played in the Euros before, and this first time playing at this level could end up being culture shock to a team not used to playing together against this type of talent.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
Poland has to be sky high with the way it has played of late. Sure, the team was beaten by the Dutch at home to kick off June, and there's still a match left to be played against Lithuania as the sendoff match for the Euros, but prior to that, we've seen nothing but really good results from Poland. Any team which can beat Germany as it did in a major competitive match like Euro 2016 qualifying is definitely a threat.
Northern Ireland hasn't performed well away from home at all. The team hasn't won a friendly match on the road in over a decade, and its matches which it won away from Belfast in qualifying for this tournament were matches against Hungary, the Faroe Islands and Greece, not exactly fixtures which can give this side much confidence heading into France.
LIVE BETTING
Where Poland has to be really careful in this match is on set pieces. A ridiculous 12 of the 16 goals which the Green and White Army scored against their foes in qualifying for this event came on free kicks. Kyle Lafferty scored seven times in qualifying, while Steven Davis has been a crucial cog in the midfield and as a leader for this team.
This is where things really can get sloppy for Poland. You'd figure that Lewandowski can take this game over all by himself. You'd also figure if he does get taken out of this match by the Northern Ireland defense, there could be problems on the other end.
Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill knows that he has to be cautious, so don't be surprised if there are a lot of dull moments in this match without many chances. However, when the Green and White Army are playing deep in the Polish third, they can do some damage. Free kicks are the perfect time to live bet on Northern Ireland for sure, and it will get a ton of those opportunities if the Poles are scrambling as they have a tendency to do on defense.
QUICK PICK
This is inevitably going to be a low scoring game. We just can't see three goals hitting the back of the net. Both of these teams should play this first half especially with a lot of caution, knowing that neither one is really poised to go forward with multiple attackers time and time again.
By taking the under, we're leaving ourselves some leeway for that inevitable moment of brilliance by Lewandowski. We'd never bet against him scoring, but we have no problem wagering against anyone else putting one home.
Euro 2016 Odds: Poland 1, Northern Ireland 0
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