Austria knows that it's in a heck of a lot of trouble in Euro 2016. Group F once looked like a winnable group if it could get a result against Portugal, but after dropping 2-0 to Hungary in the first match, a loss here in the second duel against Portugal could ultimately see it eliminated from the tournament if the result is bad enough and Iceland beats Hungary earlier in the day.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Portugal -127
Austria +410
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (under -125)
ODDS ANALYSIS
What we haven't mentioned yet is the dire nature of this match for Portugal. The Portuguese cannot be eliminated on Saturday, but after getting just one point from Tuesday's fixture against Iceland, they can't be thrilled. A Seleccao are favored by a -127 margin in this match against Austria, though optimism has to be tempered just a bit after drawing Iceland.
The total is very high by the standards set in Euro 2016 at 2.5 with -125 vig on the under.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
It's tough to tell which one of these two results from the first match day of Group F is more shocking.
Portugal was up 1-0 and really looked to be cruising against Iceland heading into halftime. It was really all one-way traffic, and the only times the Scandinavian side pushed forward was on counterattacks. Even after allowing a goal just a few minutes off of halftime, A Seleccao still looked like they would figure out how to get the three points.
Instead, frustration set in, as Iceland kept everyone behind the ball and basically dared Portugal to try to score. With each passing missed opportunity, frustrations mounted, and in the end, Portugal never put one in the back of the net.
At least the Group F favorites got a point. That's more than Austria can say.
The Austrians ended up on the wrong end of a 2-0 beating by their rivals from Hungary.
It's not like Austria didn't have its chances, though. The team nearly scored early when David Alaba just missed the back of the net, and Marko Arnautovic was always dangerous looking throughout the match. At the back though, the Austrians were a disaster. They looked vulnerable in defense over the course of the whole 90 minutes, but after giving up a goal, Aleksandar Dragovic was sent off, and the match was never the same after that. Hungary won 2-0, and that second goal might end up being a real catastrophe for Austria.
LIVE BETTING
The real question here is whether Austria is going to find answers at the back between now and the time this match kicks off. The four at the back were awful against Hungary, something that certainly wasn't expected from a unit headed by captain, Christian Fuchs. With Dragovic suspended for this fixture, we'll likely see Gyorgy Garics or Stefan Ilsanker slotted into the Starting XI. No matter who's out there though, that man is going to be attacked for sure.
Cristiano Ronaldo, who had chance after chance against Iceland, will be looking to put his name in the stat book early and often, and he has a knack of finding weaknesses in defenses.
QUICK PICK
Austria probably should learn from what Iceland did in the opening match of the tournament and park nine men behind the ball at all times. However, with the desperation clearly there to get all three points from this match, we have a feeling the Austrians are going to try to do too much here.
Portugal should punish all of the advances forward in this match and put at least two in the back of the net. There haven't been many matches in which we like the over in this tournament, but this is an exception to the rule in what we suspect will be a nice rebound match for Portugal.
Euro 2016 Odds: Portugal 3, Austria 1
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