Romania and Albania always knew their hopes for qualifying for the Round of 16 in Euro 2016 were going to come down to this. Both teams have been disappointing in their opening two fixtures in France, and the only way either one will have a shot to get out of this group is with a win against the other on Sunday night in Lyon.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Romania +120
Albania +240
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (over -110)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Romania almost has to be favored in this match. Even though the Albanians have come close to getting a point against both France and Switzerland, they're overmatched for sure against the top teams, and even the middling teams in Europe. Romania was outplayed by both of its foes as well though and is lucky to have a point to show for its first 180 minutes in Euro 2016.
Still, Romania is lined at +120 on the moneyline in a match which figures to have some action in it offensively.
The total of a flat 2.5 isn't quite as high as what we've seen for these teams of late knowing that they were overmatched badly in both games, but it's still a relatively high total for this portion of the competition.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
Albania is going to lose a player to a suspension for the second time in this tournament. Lorik Cana wasn't around for the match against France after he picked up a red card against Switzerland, and now, midfielder Burim Kukeli is set to sit this match out after he was issued a caution against both the Swiss and the French.
That's one of the many frustrating moments here for Albania in Euro 2016. The team has never played at this level before, but it surely feels like it should have at least one, if not at least two points from its work thus far. The team missed opportunity after opportunity at the end of the match against Switzerland on the second day of the competition to equalize from down 1-0, and it held France scoreless for 89 minutes, only to allow one goal in the 90th minute and one in stoppage time.
Romania has a pair of goals on penalties by Bogdan Stancu but not a heck of a lot else thus far in Euro 2016. The team still only has one win in its history in the Euros, and it needs a second one here to have any realistic chance of advancing.
Two points might be enough to be one of the top four third place teams in the group stage, but a win would leave nothing to chance.
Albania needs a win and a win only to have a shot at going through. Even that though, doesn't make it a lock to get into the knockout rounds, as the Albanians would still need to finish in front of two other third place teams to qualify.
LIVE BETTING
The real question we have in this match is whether Romania is going to be able to generate some more offense or not. Theoretically, Stancu should be getting some help. Claudiu Kerseru has had moments in which he's looked quite dangerous, while Gabriel Torje had a nice match against Switzerland from an offensive perspective.
But there's something to be said about actually putting the ball in the back of the net. Albania has yet to do it as well, but at least it has had a better tournament than expected from a defensive standpoint. If the Romanians can't finish on the run of play or on set pieces, they can't hope to make a living off of penalties in a match which is expected to produce some fireworks.
QUICK PICK
For our money, both of these teams have overachieved at this point. We really just don't like the finishing we've seen out of Romania, though. This club really is a one-man wonder as we see it with Bogdan, and when he isn't producing, the rest of the team is relatively stagnant.
That's where opportunity is going to come from for sure. Albania has been dangerous looking on set pieces, and Amir Abrashi has been the best player on the pitch at times, even against some of the best players in the world. Can he come up with a moment of brilliance in what would be the biggest goal in Albania's history? We aren't betting against it for sure.
Euro 2016 Odds: Albania 2, Romania 0
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The matchup between Romania and Albania will kick off on Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 3:00 p.m. ET. This fixture from the Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Lyon can be seen live on ESPN2.
