Most American soccer fans woke up on Tuesday morning thinking that the sky was falling. The team had been beaten by Colombia soundly, and a loss to Costa Rica would make the host nation the very first to bow out of the tournament. With the news that Jurgen Klinsmann was going to trot out the same Starting XI he used in the opening Copa America match versus the Ticos, many assumed that disaster was pending.
My, how 45 minutes can change perception in a hurry!
The Stars and Stripes blitzed Costa Rica for three first half goals en route to an emphatic 4-0 win. Qualification for the last eight of the tournament seems like a given now, but it'll take a point or better against Paraguay on Saturday to finish the job.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
United States +106
Paraguay +277
Draw +244
Over/Under 2.5 (under -120)
ODDS ANALYSIS
What's forgotten in this equation is that a win for Paraguay in this match will send it into the last eight instead of the United States. That's why a draw is actually a very unlikely result between these two teams, knowing that the Paraguayans will have no choice but to go for broke.
The Americans are the +106 moneyline favorites, but their margin isn't exactly convincing. Paraguay is only +277 to pull off the shocker and advance at the expense of the United States.
The total is a bit higher than what we've seen in this tourney so far at 2.5 with -120 vig on the under, but after the Yanks scored four times and Paraguay felt like it was always a whisker away from scoring against Colombia, it's understandable.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
The Americans played maybe their best match under Jurgen Klinsmann on Tuesday night in the emphatic 4-0 win. Clint Dempsey was all over the place, Jermaine Jones scored his first goal for the national team in two years, and Bobby Wood's finish just before halftime was one of the prettiest goals you'll ever see.
Though there was never a doubt as to what the result was going to be in the USA/Costa Rica match, Paraguay arguably deserved better against Colombia.
Dario Lezcano struck the crossbar at the end of the first half on a free kick, and each set piece from that point forward looked incredibly threatening. Their moment of brilliance came in the 71st minute when Victor Ayala scored the goal of the tournament from range. It's too bad their defense had no answers in the first half for James Rodriguez and the Colombians who raced out to a 2-0 lead relatively early.
LIVE BETTING
The Americans were just so good on the ball on Tuesday night. A repeat performance, and they'll surely be into the last eight. But the second half of that match against Costa Rica parlayed with Paraguay's near escape with a point from Colombia will provide a stern reminder of just how cautious the Yanks must be here.
Paraguay has provided some of the deadliest set pieces we've seen in this tournament, and we've already seen the Americans get themselves in plenty of trouble off of corners and free kicks in this tournament. They'll have to play disciplined ball for the full 90 in this one. Too many free kicks, and the opportunities will be there for Paraguay to strike.
QUICK PICK
Goodness knows which American team is going to show up on Saturday night. Here's what we do know, though. The Paraguayans are going to go for broke, and they've got the ability to be awfully dangerous.
Not having the suspended Oscar Romero won't help the cause for Paraguay, but Ayala and Romero's likely replacement, Nelson Valdez of the Seattle Sounders, can be tremendously dangerous.
We still see problems in the midfield and at the back for the United States, and though it seemingly feels impossible right now for it to get eliminated from this tournament by a middling South American team, we still feel as though that might ultimately be the case.
Copa America Odds: Paraguay 2, United States 1
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