It's ridiculously hard for some of the Western European teams to travel to Russian soil. Benfica and Zenit St. Petersburg are separated by about as many miles as you're going to see out of Champions League teams, and though the Portuguese side was able to get a 1-0 win in the first leg at home, this tie is far from over. These 90 minutes in St. Petersburg are going to be very tough.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Zenit St. Petersburg -105
Benfica +300
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (under -133)
ODDS ANALYSIS
The first matchup of these two teams was a bit drab, but that was to be expected, knowing that neither side wanted to make much of a mistake. The result was far better for Benfica, but the two sides weren't all that far apart in terms of quality.
Zenit is getting the nod here at -105 on the moneyline, and that basically makes it a 50/50 proposition for it to get the full share of the spoils. Just remember that a 2-1 win isn't good enough to advance. If Benfica is able to put one in the back of the net, this match could open up, and this total of 2.5 and -133 vig on the under could end up looking incredibly low based on the final score line.
THE FIRST LEG
For well over an hour, it really seemed like the first leg between Zenit and Benfica was destined to end goalless. Neither team really had a heck of a lot going forward, and quality chances were few and far between.
However, all that changed in the 90th minute when Domenico Criscito was sent off for a second yellow card. That left the Russians open at the back when their best defender all match long was sent off, and Oliveira Jonas capitalized with a goal in stoppage time to give Benfica the most slender of leads.
Zenit was perfectly content to sit back and let Benfica take the game to it. The Portuguese side had 65 percent of the possession, and it outshot Zenit 15-5, though the margin was only 4-2 for shots on net.
Zenit's counterattack looked dangerous at times, but it was clear to us that the timing just wasn't good for the most part. Artem Dzyuba was offside four times on the day before getting subbed out for Aleksandr Kokorin, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Kokorin start this match instead of Dzyuba as a result.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"1-0 is always a good result in European competitions, and I am almost 100 percent sure that we will score in St. Petersburg. I trust totally in my players and in my squad. We'll respect the opposition, knowing we believe in what we do. We play to create chances and we'll do the same (in the second leg). I won't change my ideas or my team's identity." – Benfica manager Rui Vitoria on his confidence going into the second leg of this Champions League quarterfinal
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We're not nearly as optimistic that Benfica will score in this match. Sure, Benfica has 29 goals in 12 away matches in the Portuguese Liga, but this is a far different challenge going on the road halfway across the world to St. Petersburg.
However, we do think that Vitoria has the better of the two sides. Julio Cesar was a pillar in the pipes, confidently defending anything which came his way when the Russians did get forward, and we think he'll end up with a clean sheet again in this one. There will be a point that Benfica will realize that a scoreless draw is every bit as good as a win, and that's when this match is going to get a little more tactical. That should play right into Benfica's hands, though we do think this is going to be a gritty affair on a knife's edge for the full 90 minutes.
Zenit St. Petersburg 0, Benfica 0
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The fixture between Zenit St. Petersburg and Benfica is scheduled for Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 12:00 p.m. ET at Petrovski Stadium. The match will be televised live on FOX Sports 1.
