If we're being honest, there are only so many La Liga matches which truly matter when you talk about winning the Spanish league. One of those though, is the Madrid Derby between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. The first edition of the Madrid Derby will take place on Saturday at the Vicente Calderon, and it's probably the best and last chance even so early in the season that the Atleti have to run down the top dogs in Spain.
This La Liga duel will go down Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 2:45 p.m. ET at Vicente Calderon Stadium. The match will be televised live on beIN Sports.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atletico Madrid +138
Real Madrid +209
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5
Odds Analysis
Atletico Madrid is the favored side in this match, and that's almost hard to believe for a team that is fourth best in Spain at the moment against a team that has yet to lose and probably won't end up being defeated more than three or four times over the course of the entire season, and even that might be a stretch.
The Atleti though, aren't favored by an odds-on margin. They're just +138 and are set at PK -142 on the Asian Handicap.
The total of a flat 2.5 is pretty indicative of these two teams and their styles. Real Madrid is a team averaging 3.73 goals per match in totality this year, and it's normally a team that really loves flying forward in attack. Atletico Madrid, does average 3.00 goals per match this season, but so much of that is beating up on bad teams. Only Villarreal has a better defense this season. The Atleti have allowed just eight goals this year in 11 fixtures.
Key Injuries
Both sides are dealing with some big injury concerns ahead of this match. The news for Atletico Madrid was never good with Antoine Griezmann. He's got a foot injury at this point and was never expected to play in this match. Even though he hasn't said anything about this injury, at least Saul Niguez has said that Griezmann can play through the pain. Having a teammate say that he can play through the pain and actually doing so though, are two different things.
The problems for Real Madrid are a little more cut and dry. We know that Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Karim Benzema are all out of the equation, but the latest bad news is that Alvaro Morata is going to be out for six weeks after picking up a muscle injury while playing for Spain. The real kick in the pants is that La Roja really didn't need him against Macedonia, and they certainly didn't have it have him in the fold for the friendly against England.
Recent Form
Real Madrid beat Leganes, the team's fifth straight win against a Spanish side. There is definitely some cause for concern though after the team looked sluggish on the defensive side of the ball against Legia Warsaw in a 3-3 draw in the UCL.
Playing without Griezmann, Atletico Madrid was blanked by Real Sociedad 2-0 just before the international break. That's a big concern for the Atleti, knowing that they just can't get anything going forward against even halfway decent teams without Griezmann out there.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
It's not that Atletico Madrid has no one who can put the ball in the back of the net, but Griezmann is just the best creator on the ball. He has six goals already in La Liga play this year, closely followed by Yannick Carrasco and Kevin Gameiro with five apiece. Keep an eye on Fernando Torres in this match as well. He's not a regular for Atletico Madrid at this point in his career, but he's got a knack of coming up big in big time matches.
But there's still just too much for Real Madrid here. Yes, all of these big names are out of the fold, but there's still Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, Mateo Kovacic, Daniel Carvajal and so many others who are world class players. We don't think this is going to be easy at all for Los Blancos, but if they can get that first goal on the board, they could be off and running from there.
La Liga Odds: Real Madrid 2, Atletico Madrid 0
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