The first spot in the MLS Cup will be handed out on Sunday night in Frisco, where the Portland Timbers will hope to hold on to their 3-1 lead from their first match against FC Dallas in the Western Conference Finals.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
FC Dallas -115
Portland Timbers +319
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (over -130)
ODDS ANALYSIS
FC Dallas might've been the No. 1 seed in the West, but it has been an underdog virtually every step of the way here in the playoffs. The Hoops were dogs to Seattle in the opening leg of the conference semifinals, but they were able to persevere in a shootout. Now, they're in a lot of trouble against Portland after losing 3-1.
A win at -115 is an absolute necessity for FC Dallas. A 2-0 win would be good enough to get into the MLS Cup. A 3-1 win would send the match to extra time, while any other win by two goals would send Portland into the MLS Cup. The Timbers merely need to win, draw or lose by one goal or fewer to get the job done.
That's why the total sitting at 2.5 and -130 vig on the over almost certainly suggests that this match will be 2-0 Dallas or an over affair.
KEY INJURIES
Injuries aren't really an issue on either side of this game. Rolando Escobar and Bakary Soumare have been out for the long run for FC Dallas, while Portland has been playing without Ben Zemanski for the entire season.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"It helps us a lot. We have that confidence that we came back on Seattle and hopefully we can come back here against Portland." – FC Dallas keeper Jesse Gonzalez speaking of the comeback against Seattle and how that can spark the team against the Timbers
THE FIRST MEETING
Things could've really gotten a little hairy for Portland at Providence Park a week ago. The Timbers raced out to a 1-0 lead in the first half when Liam Ridgewell blew one past Jesse Gonzalez, and they doubled it on what might be the goal of the year from Dairon Asprilla from a good 15 yards outside of the box.
However, that 2-0 lead was cut to 2-1 in the 62nd minute by David Texeira, who was rather quiet in the opening series against Seattle for the Hoops.
The 2-1 margin stood until the 90th minute. Portland surely would've been happy with the result, but it would've been significantly easier for FCD to overturn the result in Frisco, as it was the same deficit it was facing against the Sounders.
Nat Borchers though, had the final touch in a ball across the box to cap off a 3-1 win for the Timbers, one which was highlighted by great attacking, something we really haven't seen a lot of out of this team in the playoffs.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Portland is going to have to really look at its options carefully in this match. Another attacking match could really give the speed wing players of FCD all of the space they need on the counter to produce the minimum two goals necessary. That said, if the Timbers can find the back of the net just once, it would be a huge boost and would force the Hoops to score three times just to force extra time, and that's if Portland stayed off the scoreboard the remainder of the night.
No team has ever turned over a two-goal deficit in a home-and-home series in the MLS Cup playoffs, and we don't see it happening here either. The Hoops haven't shown enough attacking sense in build ups to see this match off. In the end, the Borchers third in Portland will prove to be the difference between these two teams, sending Portland to its first ever MLS Cup.
FC Dallas 1, Portland 0
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