The New York Red Bulls won the Supporters' Shield this year, but they have a heck of a mountain to climb if they're going to get into the Eastern Conference Finals. They're facing a 1-0 hole going into Sunday's Leg 2 of the Eastern Conference Semis against the Montreal Impact, a team that has never advanced from a series in their existence.
At 4 p.m. ET, tune into ESPN for live television coverage of this MLS match on Sunday, November 6, 2016, at Red Bull Arena.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Red Bulls -178
Montreal Impact +500
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5
Odds Analysis
The Red Bulls lost their first match of this home-and-home series 1-0, and now, they have to ultimately win by at least that matching 1-0 margin to get into extra time. A two-goal victory or more will be the only option to keep New York alive, as a one-goal victory with the Impact scoring a goal will see Montreal into the second round.
As a result, it's not a great shock that the Red Bulls are favored by a full goal and a -178 margin on the moneyline.
Even with a lower-scoring match in the first leg, the total of 2.5 and -163 vig on the over is basically telling of a higher-scoring final score on the horizon.
The First Leg
With Didier Drogba still not returning to the squad for the Impact due to a back injury, it was a real push to get even a goal. Montreal used a 4-3-3 formation and finally got a goal from Matteo Mancosu in the 61st minute, a goal that could end up being crucial over the course of this whole result.
New York only managed nine total shots, three of which hit the target, but there are certainly signs of improvement. The Red Bulls had 63.5 percent of the possession and spent a lot of time in the final third of the field, but they just weren't able to put much of anything on target.
Montreal played a fantastic defensive match, and it finally scored against the run of play on that great volley by Mancosu.
Injury Report
Andres Romero suffering a torn ACL in October was a big problem for the Impact, but the really big problem is that of Drogba. The Ivory Coast national player is disgruntled and has a bad back, and if he can't get back on the pitch, scoring is going to be a real problem for Montreal.
The Red Bulls have stayed relatively healthy this year, and their only two problems are at the back with Gideon Baah and Connor Lade, both of whom have been out of the fold for going on three months.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
For our money, New York was the better of the two sides in that match at the Stade Saputo, but it just couldn't figure out how to get a breakthrough and got caught napping at the back one time. But now back in the Big Apple, this is a very different situation, and we know that the pressure is going to be revved up on the back four, especially if the Impact go with this 4-3-3 formation once again.
Evan Bush is going to have to have his best game of the season to post a shutout for a second straight game against a Red Bulls squad that scored 61 goals in the regular season and went 13-2-2 here at Red Bull Arena.
You're not going to keep Bradley Wright-Phillips quiet forever, and after a game in which he was shut down in the Great White North, he should be in better form back at home. Remember that BWP had scored 12 goals in his last 10 regular season matches before the dud in the playoffs.
The optimist for Montreal will point to the fact that it has the team that shut him out in that stretch in the regular season as well, but once the dam breaks here, we think the Red Bulls are going to go for the gusto and put this home-and-home fixture away to silence their critics.
MLS Odds: New York 4, Montreal 0
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