Toronto FC did everything it could on the final day of the regular season to get into the top two slots in the Eastern Conference to avoid having to play on the first day of the MLS Cup playoffs. Instead, the Reds finished a point adrift from New York City FC, and the punishment is going to be 90 grueling minutes against the Philadelphia Union for the right to move on to a home-and-home series against NYCFC.
This MLS duel will go down Wednesday, October 26, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at BMO Field. The match will be televised live on ESPN2.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
Odds Analysis
With an 8-6-3 record at home this season, it's clear that Toronto FC is going to be really tough to beat here at BMO Field. The Reds had a fantastic go of it at home all season long, and now they're playing against a Philadelphia team that won just three games away from home all season.
Home field advantage in these one-off games has been crucial in recent years for sure. The home team advanced from all four of the knockout round duels in 2015, and in fact, the last time a team advanced on the road from the opening round of the second season was back in 2012 when Houston trumped Chicago.
That's why it won't be surprising to see the Reds lined as odds-on favorites to win the first postseason game of the 2016 MLS Cup playoffs.
Key Injuries
The opening match of the MLS Cup playoffs always presents a relatively short turnaround time for the teams that played on Decision Day on Sunday, only to be back on the pitch on either Wednesday or Thursday, and that's left some awful decisions to have to be made on the injury front.
Ashtone Morgan was held out of the Reds' last game against Chicago, but we're not sure he's going to be back from his stress fracture in time for this one either. Will Johnson also sat against the Fire and is a question mark to open the second season.
The big problem for the Union is that captain Maurice Edu's season is over thanks to a stress fracture in his leg. Josh Yaro is also out, while Chris Pontius was held out of the regular season finale against the Red Bulls in part to get ready for this match.
Recent Form
TFC can only blame itself for not finishing in the Top 2 for the way it ended its season. Sure, the team played a good match against Chicago to win 3-2 in a game that was probably more emphatic than that score line suggests, but prior to that, the club punted away possible points in a 2-2 draw at Montreal and a shocking 2-1 loss at home to D.C. United. Before that, it was three straight draws at home.
The Union are sliding for sure with consecutive 2-0 losses at home and seven straight matches without a victory heading into the second season. The last time Philly won a match was back on August 27 against Sporting Kansas City, and its last road result was just a few days before that in Columbus.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
Even though Adu is out of the fold, we do fancy Alejandro Bedoya to step up and play a big game in the Union midfield. He's still trying to lock down his spot on Jurgen Klinsmann's team for the Hex match against Mexico next month, and a big showing here would go a long way towards accomplishing just that.
Sebastian Giovinco is fantastic, but he's coming back from injury and might not be ready to put in a good 90 after playing all 90 minutes against Chicago on Sunday.
Though we do think that TFC is going to advance, this match could be gritty and physical, and the nastier it gets, the more this favors Philadelphia. We'll go with the Union in 90 on the Asian Handicap but still fancy the Reds to go through.
MLS Odds: Toronto 2, Philadelphia 1 ( Extra Time )
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