Just two matches are left to play for Arsenal and Manchester City, and both are still clinging tightly to spots in the Champions League for next season. There's still a chance that either one can finish in the Top 3, a designation that comes with a guaranteed spot in the group stage of the event, while the fourth place finisher will have to play a home-and-home series to play on in the UCL.
That’s why, with Leicester City already clinching the league title, the duel between third place Arsenal and fourth place Man City is the most important of the weekend in England.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Manchester City +150
Arsenal +181
Draw +251
Over/Under 2.5 (over -145)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Manchester City was knocked out of the UCL on Wednesday by Real Madrid in an incredibly drab performance, and the oddsmakers are expecting a bit of a hangover here at home. The Citizens are favored by just a +150 margin on their home turf, while the Gunners are only just behind at +181.
The total of 2.5 and -145 vig on the over shows the importance of this match. A draw really isn't the desired result for either side. Sure, a point ensures Arsenal of at least a fourth place finish, but said point does virtually nothing for Manchester City. It leaves it three back of Arsenal going into the last week of the year, and Manchester United and West Ham could both be right on its tail if points are dropped in any way, shape or form in this one.
For as great as this season was for Manchester City in getting to the Champions League semifinals for the first time, the domestic campaign has been an unmitigated disaster, one which could finish with an epic disaster should it fall out of the Top 4, or worse, out of the Top 5 to get booted from European soccer all together next year.
KEY INJURIES
We have to wonder if Vincent Kompany's frustrating season is finally over with. He's been dealing with knocks all year long, and he was taken off the pitch against Real Madrid after just 10 minutes with a hamstring injury. He's likely going to join both David Silva and Pablo Zabaleta on the sidelines in this one.
Arsenal has gotten several of its stars back, but it has really just never gotten totally healthy either. The team is lucky if it gets Carl Jenkinson back for the start of next season, and it really seems like both Per Mertesacker and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are finished for the year as well.
LIVE BETTING
The Gunners have had their troubles of late scoring goals. Danny Welbeck finally struck against Norwich City after a lousy hour plus by both sides to push the Canaries closer to the drop. Arsenal didn't score against Sunderland the week prior as well. The team hasn't been beaten in the Premier League in eight straight, but going 3-5-0 in that stretch won't help embattled Arsene Wenger's chances of holding onto the post he's been in for years and years.
City now has three straight really suspect results under its belt. One could forgive the two scoreless efforts against Real Madrid, but a 4-2 loss at Southampton which was sandwiched by the two duels with the La Liga giants was inexcusable.
QUICK PICK
These two teams have real problems right now, and we don't really see either one coming up with a sterling effort in this match. Offense has been the woe for both sides, and that's why it's a big surprising to see this total lined so high.
We're set to take advantage of that, though.
Should Manchester United drop points against Norwich on Saturday, a draw becomes a much more suitable result for both sides, and we think that's how this is going to end one way or the other in the final match for Manuel Pellegrini at the Ethiad.
Barclays Premier League Odds: Manchester City 1, Arsenal 1
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