If Manchester City has any hopes whatsoever of challenging for the Premier League title in 2015-16, it had better take three points from the lowliest team in the top flight on Sunday, as Aston Villa pays what will likely be its last visit to the Ethiad in quite some time.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Manchester City -535
Aston Villa +1525
Draw +635
Over/Under 3 (over -120)
ODDS ANALYSIS
The spread in this match is all that's dictating the total. There's really nothing that we've seen from either side to suggest that there should be more than three goals in this match, but the total has to be set this high knowing that Man City is favored by a full two goals. In order for the Citizens to cover that spread, they have to get this game at least to the total, if not clear past it.
If you're feeling lucky, you can get a piece of the Villains at a price of over 15 to 1. Hey, Mainz beat Bayern Munich at home on Wednesday and was over triple the price of this!
KEY INJURIES
Yaya Toure has been dealing with a foot injury of late for Man City, and with bigger fixtures coming down the line, we can't imagine that he's suiting up for this one.
Villa is hoping to get back Libor Kozak from an ankle injury by Saturday, but the fact that he wasn't even available as a sub in the middle of the week tells us that he won't be out there. He'll join Carlos Sanchez, Adama Traore, Jack Grealish and Jordan Amavi on the sidelines for Aston Villa.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"I am not thinking about the title and not thinking not to qualify for the Champions League. The most important thing is to recover our performance in the Premier League because we lost the last three." – Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini when asked if the Citizens still have realistic championship hopes
RECENT FORM
The losses have been mounting up at a particularly high pace for Aston Villa. Sure, Leicester City was in a similar spot last year in March, but this situation really looks grim for the team holding up the rest of the table. Villa was beaten 3-1 at home on Tuesday by Everton, its sixth straight loss across all competitions. That streak started with a 4-0 loss against half of a Manchester City side in the FA Cup on January 30.
Manchester City not only has lost three straight in the EPL as Pellegrini alluded to, but it also needed penalties to beat Liverpool in the Capital One Cup Final and was blasted by Chelsea 5-1 in the FA Cup in this recent run of poor form. The only solid result in the mix was a 3-1 win at Dynamo Kiev in the last 16 of the Champions League.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
For as badly as Manchester City has played, this is a get better game. There isn't a midweek game to worry about this coming week, so the players can really leave it all on the line, and even next Saturday's duel with Norwich City at Carrow Road should produce three points as well.
Aston Villa has just been terrible of late, and we can't see a situation where it only loses by a goal.
If you're backing City, you're playing the more talented team at home in a match where it really has to get back in form. If you're playing Aston Villa, you're more or less just hoping that the Citizens don't strike three times to give yourself a shot. We hate laying these huge margins in league matches, but in this case, we'll make an exception.
Manchester City 4, Aston Villa 0
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