Had you told Burnley supporters at their team would be sitting in 14th position on the Barclays Premier League table through seven matches, they probably would have taken it. The results haven't all been good for the Clarets, but the end result for a generally overmatched and overspent team have been alright in their second go around in the top flight. Is a road match against Southampton winnable after two losses on the road to kick things off? Don't discount the possibility even against really long odds.
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Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Southampton -244
Burnley +809 Draw +355
Over/Under 2.5
Odds Analysis
The Saints are the name team of this bunch, and they're the ones who have no real threat of relegation this season. Their history at home is good, and Burnley has been awful on the road thus far and hasn't been tested all that often, so a price of -244 definitely has some justification even though it's high for sure.
Southampton isn't often favored by a goal and half on the Asian Handicap, but it is this weekend.
With a total of just a flat 2.5, the insinuation is there that 1-0 and 2-0 are the most likely final scores.
Key Injuries
Soton won't have Jeremy Pied for a while thanks to a knee injury, but the news aside from that is at least improving. Jay Rodriguez should be back in short order after picking up a groin injury in September, while the news on Matt Targett is good after he was withdrawn from international play with what was classified as a minor knock. Shane Long is a bigger question mark, though. He suffered a leg injury while playing for Ireland last week, and if he can't go in this one, that would be a massive loss for the Saints.
Ashley Barnes has already been ruled out for the next couple weeks for Burnley, while Andre Gray is in the midst of a four-match suspension for off-the-field issues on social media. Tom Heaton picked up a minor problem while playing for England during the international break, but manager Sam Dyche doesn't think he's going to miss any time back in the Premier League.
Recent Form
The Saints have been chippy of late. They haven't allowed a goal in six straight matches across all competitions, though sometimes, scoring has been a problem. It's been almost 200 minutes since their last goal was scored, so the international break probably did them some good to get some offense together.
Burnley might have lost its last match before the international break against Arsenal, but the loss was a gritty one for sure, and the goal the Gunners scored probably should have been disallowed in stoppage time. Prior to that, the Clarets took out Watford at home 2-0.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
The big note here is that Watford has played five matches at home and just two on the road to date, one of which was a 3-0 loss at Leicester and one of which was a 3-0 loss at Chelsea. Those are bad results for sure, and though this is a tough match, it isn't as tough as either of those in all likelihood.
Still, with the Saints likely getting Rodriguez back to aid an already strong defensive team, we have a hard time seeing Burnley getting on the board in this one. Dyche will have better days at the office, and he's going to have to do so if th Clarets are going to stay up as we think they will. This though, is just too big of a challenge off of the international break.
BPL Odds: Southampton 1, Burnley 0
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