There's only one team in England which has allowed a single goal since the middle of January. How many guesses would it have taken you to get to Southampton as the correct answer? The Saints have made a nice run away from any potential threat of relegation, and all of a sudden, they're on the verge of competing for a spot in the Europa League next year. A win over Chelsea at home would be massive on Saturday.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Southampton +180
Chelsea +150
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (under -125)
ODDS ANALYSIS
It's clear that the market is finally starting to correct itself just a bit for Chelsea. The Blues aren't going anywhere this year and are just playing out the string. They're still the favorites at St. Mary's at +150, but a home victory is basically every bit as likely at +180. Chelsea is the slender favorite at PK -125 on the Asian Handicap.
The total is almost forced to be low because of Southampton's defensive form. The number to beat is 2.5 and -125 vig on the under.
KEY INJURIES
The Blues have a relatively clean bill of health at this point. Kurt Zouma is set to miss the rest of the year and potentially the beginning of next season as well thanks to a knee injury, while Radamel Falcao has been a long-term absentee as well. John Terry is likely to play for the first time on Saturday since a muscle injury drew him off the pitch against Newcastle on February 13.
Victor Wanyama was suspended for five matches for a dangerous foul against West Ham the beginning of the month. He'll be forced to sit this one out, though the rest of the Saints should be good to go on Saturday.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"Eden Hazard came back very strong. That's what I like very much. He has had setbacks in recent periods caused by injuries, and it's not easy to come back. He trained well. Bit by bit he got more minutes in the games, and it's rewarded now by his assists and goal." – Chelsea manager Guus Hiddink on Eden Hazard, who scored a goal and had two helpers in the 5-1 romp in the FA Cup over Manchester City last weekend
RECENT FORM
Southampton hasn't been playing pretty soccer, but it has been effective, playing to at least a draw in six straight matches. The team hasn't allowed a goal in that run, and it is 3-0-0 at home in its last three against West Ham, West Brom and Watford.
With each passing stride, we're starting to see Chelsea look more promising. The Blues blasted Man City in the FA Cup last weekend 5-1, and though the match earlier that week against PSG was lost, the 2-1 defeat at least kept them alive for the second leg. Prior to that, Chelsea blew out Newcastle 5-1 and escaped a potential failure at home against Manchester United to get a point.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Shane Long has been in awesome form for the Saints, as has Fraser Forster, who almost looks like he's never going to give up a goal again. Of course, we know that isn't going to be the case, but we really wonder if the Blues are going to be held scoreless in this one as well.
Chelsea might be in better form at the moment, but for our money, Southampton is the better of these two clubs. The Saints were dominant back in October when these two last met, a clinical 3-1 victory at Stamford Bridge before we really knew that everything was falling apart for the Blues.
We don't think we'll see quite as many goals this time around, but this price of +180 is far too good to pass on.
Southampton 1, Chelsea 0
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