It's already been a huge week for Manchester City. The team managed a draw in the first leg of its home-and-home series with Real Madrid in the UCL semifinals to give it a real chance to get to the finale. However, all of that good work would go to waste if points were punted in what should be a winnable match against Southampton.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Southampton +210
Manchester City +120
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (over -125)
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Citizens are on the road for this one, but they've still got a lot of following from bettors. Nine points in these last three matches would secure their spot in the UCL again next year, though any slip along the way could pose some problems from that standpoint.
Manchester City and its suspect 7-6-4 road record is set at +120 against Southampton, a team which has more wins at home (nine) than other results (three draws, five losses).
The total of 2.5 and -125 vig on the over is a testament to this Saints defense, one which ranks No. 5 in the EPL in goals allowed at just 1.06 per match.
KEY INJURIES
Tired legs from Tuesday's affair with Real Madrid could be rested on Sunday, especially with another duel against Los Galacticos coming next Wednesday. That said, the only men we know won't be available for Manuel Pellegrini are Samir Nasri and David Silva, the latter of which suffered a hamstring injury which could end his season in the first leg of the Champions League semis.
Southampton lost Charlie Austin in warm-ups for the Newcastle match a couple weeks ago to a knee injury, and he hasn't been back in training since. At this late juncture, especially with nothing really left to play for, the Saints could very well shut him down until August.
LIVE BETTING
Don't say that Southampton isn't still trying to make a late push for a spot in the Europa League next year. Ronald Koeman's crew has been full of life, as was seen in a 4-2 win on the road at relegated Aston Villa last weekend. The Saints have been full of goals of late, scoring three against Newcastle and three against Liverpool in recent weeks as well, and Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle have been left to thank for that.
Joe Hart has been in awesome form of late for the Sky Blues. He's allowed just one goal in his last five matches across all competitions, that being a goal in a match against Newcastle which was clearly looked past. He was literally a perfect 10 against Real Madrid on Tuesday night, and if he plays like that again in this one, Pellegrini's side will have three more points coming in all likelihood.
QUICK PICK
For as well as Hart has been playing, he did get a bit of an assist on Tuesday when Cristiano Ronaldo was left out of the side for Real Madrid. He's one of the most lethal offensive players on the planet, and not having him out there really hurt the finishing of the Spanish giants.
Southampton has nothing to lose at this point. The team may as well go for it and go for broke. Three points here could make things really interesting for the rest of the run in for the Saints, as they'd be the first side eager to play in the Europa League in 2016-17 in a league where teams don't otherwise really care that much about the second-tier competition in Europe.
Will the Saints ultimately get all three points? We don't think so. But could it be a heck of a fun journey to get there if Manchester City pushes forward? Absolutely.
Barclays Premier League Odds: Southampton 3, Manchester City 3
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